Okay, now that things have quieted down--

The subject of Ragozin's Wood figures came up in the last couple of days on the Rag board, so let's deal with that. In a post of mine before the Derby I explained that Ragozin got the figures wrong for FC and EM, and that this wasn't the usual judgement question-- it wasn't about our differing philosophies of figure making, sprints/routes, sliding variants, etc. It was a factual issue, about an error that Ragozin's trackman made on the ground of Senor Swinger.

The variant for the routes on Wood day stayed basically the same (surprisingly, considering the conditions), and Ragozin and I did the race the same way. I have the advantage of having our work (run-down, as we call it, with ground etc.), but also have Ragozin's sheets for Wood day, and for the horses that came out of the race into the Derby and Preakness (FC, EM, SS, KS, NYH), so I know what he had to work with, and how he dealt with it. Ragozin, like all serious figure makers, ultimately ties his variants to the figure histories of the horses. He does tie independent events (races, days) together more than I do, but even then he is allowed an (arbitrary, in his case) amount of leeway from the surrounding races.

The general variant (within a point) for the Wood was clear, but nailing it down exactly, for both of us, meant tying it to one or more horses in the race. For me, it was easy-- I just paired up Empire Maker and Senor Swinger to their tops, which fit with the day, gave FC a new top, and several others off races. But Ragozin had problems-- since he had EM's Fla Derby different (ahem), he couldn't pair him; he had to give him a new top, with no idea of what that number should be. And, he had the wrong ground for SS.

So, with the general area of the variant established, he did the right thing-- he paired up Senor Swinger. Problem is, SS was about 2 paths (1 point) wider than Len's trackman had him (and you better believe I had Litfin go back to review the ground before I shot off my mouth). So while SS's number ends up being correct (a return to his top on Rag, a return to within 1/4 point of 2 numbers he had run on TG), the error on his ground meant that Len was forced to give the other horses in the race about a point better than they deserved.

As I said, this was a factual matter, so this is one case where later events don't prove anything-- but it certainly should have been clear to anyone reasonable that Ragozin's Derby numbers, which had the first FOUR finishers all not running tops in the race, would have looked better if you added a point to FC and EM's Wood figures, in which case they would have effectively paired up in the Derby, as they did on TG. And while I thought FC was an underlay in the Preakness, everyone is free to decide for themselves on which sheets he looked more likely to run a new top. And by the way, the argument that the new top he ran in Baltimore makes the faster Wood figure look right is hogwash-- if he had paired up that race you could try to make that case, although as I said this is a factual question of ground loss. But he didn't, anyway-- he ran a huge new top.



TGJB