I realize that betting on the Derby in February is a lot like playing the lottery but I like to make some sort of wager in the First Future book just to give me a horse to follow on the Derby trail.

Of course, it is pretty hard to find anything worth betting on since the fast horses all are likely to be overbet and are also very likely to get hurt before the Derby (there have been lots of posts about too fast too early in past years on this board). What makes it even worse is that most of the live longshots get buried in the "field," which typically leaves only a few possibly playable horses.

I will "fess" up right now - this year may be my silliest play ever. I actually bet on a horse that has only one lifetime win (a maiden race) and just got trounced by 5 lengths in a nw1 allowance race on Saturday.

Why would I bet on such a horse to win the Derby? I could plead insanity but, believe it or not, I do have some semi-rational reasons for making the play although I probably should be getting 250/1 odds rather than the 50/1 for which I settled.

I would be interested in hearing what others played and why (including the TG folks) so please feel free to share your wagers if you were also crazy enough to bet on the Derby in February.

OK - I admit it - I played Shaniko.

Here are the positives, as I seem them:

1) He was almost 50/1

2) He was almost 50/1...Only kidding. I did have a few other reasons.

3) He is definitely bred to get the Derby distance (by AP indy out of a Pleasant Tap Mare)

4) He has solid connections (Pletcher/Velasquez)

5) He has some 2yo seasoning but is still lightly raced with a lot of upside potential (he made only his 4th start on Saturday)

6) He was pretty fast as a 2yo (top of 6) but not too fast. Horses that run fast at 2 typically don't hold together at 3 and I expect a lot of the top contenders to drop off the Derby trail again this year. I think that Second of June's injury and Half Bridle's training hiccup are only the tip of the ice berg. Keep in mind that at this time last year Empire Maker's top was only a 6 and Peace Rules' top was only a 7.

7) Shaniko has a solid line heading into his race on Saturday and he looked ready to make another forward move and (I am only guessing here) that he did indeed move forward. Despite getting beat by 5 lengths he still may have run a pretty good figure. He was giving 4 lbs and a couple of paths to the winner, Swing For the Fences, and he finished about 4 lengths clear of everybody else, most of whom had been running in the 5-7 range with a few likely pairing their tops. So there is a good chance that SFTF simply ran a monster race and factoring in weight and ground, Shaniko may have actually jumped forward 2-3 points. That would leave him with a very strong, forward moving sheet and just one more forward move away from likely being competitive in the Derby (assume it will take around a zero to win), which is still almost 3 months away (plenty of time).

8) I liked the way Shaniko ran his last race. He sat near the back of the pack while being carried wide on both turns but showed a sudden burst of acceleration to zoom right past most of the field on the turn and grab the lead at the head of the lane. He then may have a hung a bit given the weight and ground loss and 9f distance and it was only his second 2-turn race. SFTF swung out in the stretch and simply ran right by Shaniko. That was a great race by SFTF and he looks like a legit Derby contender but there is no reason that at equal weights and with a better trip that Shaniko could not turn the tables with a little more improvement.

The negatives are the obvious ones including the fact that I am just guessing at Shaniko's last figure, however, at least now I have a horse to follow as the Derby approaches and, if Shaniko drops off the Derby trail, there is always Future Pool #2...

Now let's hear from the rest of you. It's time to start catching Derby fever!

Chris