ATD - very little wrong. the jock has had a very difficult time getting horses like this to cross the derby wire first (VG, aptitude, the st ballado horse, all flying late only to miss). running style and jock the only issues. somewhat of a contender.

bird - half sis was trounced when trying ten furlongs. zito says the horse is on the small side. i like the TG # move, however, when the horse went from 7f to 8 1/2 f. contender i guess, but i'm guessing 10f aint the game here.

borrego - looks like "5" or "6" is the best this one will do at 10f. no thanks.

capac - very fast horse. finished with a ton of energy last. too many unknowns to recommend, but nothing would surprise me here.

Euro - definite contender. best 2yr old last year in my opinion, and the first prep was perfect. unbridled song couldnt' get the 10f (wearing a bar shoe though), but this one gets a ton of stamina from the dam.
nothing wrong, and i imagine one of the top jocks will be aboard if the horse puts in one more excellent race. one of the ones.

FS - finishing very well at the end of his races, but with grand slam on top, and salt lake on bottom, i'm guessing one won't get past a "6" or "7" at 10f. no.

gradepoint - definite contender in my opinion. the horse has been finishing very well at the end of his races, and the TG pattern suggests he is going in the right direction. last # might be a bit slow, but the horse left a lot on the track.

gran prospect - fast, and runs like he wants to go longer.... i just get the feeling he isn't going faster than "5" at 10f. outside contender, prob good value, but not for me.

halfbridled - obvious contender, but the horse has not run yet, and the OAKS is possible. too many question marks at this point for me.

LH - gets some stamina from the dam side, but i won't be betting the tale of the cat's going long until they get a few more 9 and 10f wins. worth noting that LH backed up a bit when going from 7f to 8 1/2
last year, and the bris late pace # was on the slow side in the hol fut win. a fast one for sure, but i will take a stand against going 10f.

LP - ran very well last time. not sure if i like pulpit's going 10f though. a good stab for some, too many questions for me.

MD - nice horse, not sure if it's a winning pattern though. something tells me this one one has only a bit of improvement left in him for the time being. any pattern experts out there care to give an opinion?

ME - really don't know here. guessing this one lacks the class to win the derby.

MJ - fast one, out of a nice mare. i have not seen him run, and need to see more class. a stab for some, not me yet.

RTF - i just know that the CD surface on derby day has been lightning quick the last few years. smoke glaken is all you here when RTF is mentioned, but SG could go 8 1/2f, and if the horse was by AP Indy, the odds would be 3-1 right now. tons of stamina on the dam side, and the the horse has finished very well in his last two routes. i think bailey sticks with this one, and i can see nothing wrong. one of the ones.

shaniko - note the TG stats; shaniko's dam did her best work sprinting. in last, JR asked the horse for run on the turn, and he exploded, but flattened out a bit. pletcher needs to do his best training job to date if this one is going to win the derby. i would like to see a bit more energy at the end of his next race (fla or la derby), and then a solid finish in the wood. not a lot of room for error here, but at 50-1, a solid bet to me.

SW - great horse, but just doesn't finish like he wants to go 10f. no thanks.

SO - NO

SA - a lot of money has been wasted on st ballado colts in derby future bets. ave winning distance only 7.0 f. this one gets more stamina from the dam however, and seemed to improve quite a bit when routing for the second time. looks a bit like LH to me, but i like the pedigree a bit more, and the horse has put in an excellent route already. contender.

Tapit - i have no idea to be honest. obviously has a shot at being great, but i need to see another race or two. a nice stab for somebody who knows more than i do.

TCE - no idea. zito likes his other contender's chances better going 10f, so i will go with him.

TH - nice horse, put him on the weeds.

so: out of the 23 contenders, my list goes

1. gradepoint
2. read the footnotes
3. shaniko
4. eurosilver
5. halfbridled
6. action this day
7. st averil
8. tapit

more to follow on horses not included in the 23 betting interests.