i looked at this last year..... the common thread for the derby is mr prospector, northern dancer, and buckpasser. if they have one, or even better, two or those infuences, they are eligible to win the derby (FC had all three). unfortunately, most ap indy's just are not ready for their best by derby time. last year i had the ap indy owned by the hollywood crew ranked first at this time (at long odds). of course he got a bad trip, and came flying for fourth. i think the two i have ranked high this year are a bit more agile than most however. but you are so correct, ap indy has probably taken the most bad kd futures money over the last few years.... my study last year was based on the last twelve or so winners, if you go back, i guess you could substitute raise a native for mr prospector.



Post Edited (02-17-04 21:48)