What is the "ideal" 2yo/early 3yo form? How fast is too fast? How slow is too slow?

I agree it may have changed in recent years but I am still not necessarily convinced that Funny Cide is the new model.

Last year, all the other fast 2yos failed to get to or fire in the Derby last year (and there were a lot) and the top 3yos other than Funny Cide all were not that fast at 2 and relatively late developers that made a big jump in the March time frame. For example:

Empire Maker's top was a 6 until mid-March and he actually ran the fastest fig in the Derby despite running 2nd.

Peace Rules top was a 7 until mid-March.

Atswhatimtalkingabout was unraced at 2 and had a top of only 6.5 until the end of Feb.

Ten Most Wanted had a top of 7.25 until mid-April. (He was an also-ran in the Derby but had a terrible post/trip and redeemed himself in the Belmont.)

Going back to other recent past years:

War Emblem had a top 8 until mid-March.

Proud Citizen had a top of 6 until mid-April.

Perfect Drift had a top of 5.25 until mid-March.

Medaglio D'ORo had a top of 7 until mid-March.

Monarchos had a top of 7 until mid-Feb.

Invisible Ink had a top of 6.5 until mid-Feb.

Congaree had a top of 13.5 until mid-March.

FuPeg had a top of 6.5 until mid-March.

Aptitude had a top of 7 until April.

Impeachment had a top of 7.75 until April.

Charismatic had a top of 8 until April.

Menfee had a top of 5.5 until April.

Cat Thief had a top over 5 until April.

Real Quiet had a top of 7 until mid-March.

Victory Gallop had a top 8.5 until mid-March.

Indian Charlie had a top of 6.75 until April.

If I go back any farther the Derby winning figs get to be much slower so it becomes much harder to compare.

I think the jury is still out but the trend may be more of having lightly raced 2yos that are not that fast but that make a big jump (4-6 pts) off a strong line sometime in or near March. At least the was the angle I played in the Future Book 1 this year(perhaps foolishly).

Of course, the not-so-easy (maybe impossible) trick is to somehow predict this pattern ahead of time.

However, I will still avoid any of the fast horses in early Future Books given even the limited data. The top Derby finishers in recent years, even last year, (with the one obvious exception) have been much slower than many of their competitors at 2 and early 3 but then dramatically jump past them in their final 1 or 2 Derby preps. Most of the early developers (fast at 2 or very early 3) don't even make it to the Derby and those that do seldom perform very well.

I am hoping that Shaniko makes one of those big March jumps in the La Derby and that many of the faster horses regress between now and the Derby. Time will tell.

The Derby Future may be a dumb bet but it sure is a lot of fun...

Chris