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Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (521 Views)
Posted by: derby1592 (IP Logged)
Date: February 20, 2004 05:53PM

Chuckles - This may be preaching to the choir but keep in mind that looking at the fractional times can be very misleading.

There are different runups for 9f vs. 8.5f and the different fractions are run on the turn for 9f vs. 8.5f. Also, with young, lightly-raced 3yos 9f is significantly more taxing than 8.5f (particularly in the final 1/8th). Additionally, note that differences in weight and ground-loss are not taken into account in the raw fractional times.

Not to mention the possibility of the track changing speeds, split variants, etc.

All that makes the comparing fractions (and even final times) between the 9f race and other 8.5f races even on the same day very tricky and potentially misleading.

Fortunately, we can just let TG worry about all that (at least the stuff that relates to the final figure).

I certianly did not mean to imply that I thought Shaniko is faster now than SFTF or RTF or a bunch of others in the future book. Just that he is lightly-raced with a solid,forward-moving line that seems capable of the improvement needed to win the Derby and that his sheet looks a lot more like the recent top Derby finishers than do the sheets of the other faster horses such as RTF or most of the other horses listed in the Future book. In fact, based on past history, the fastest horses in Feb. don't usually run that well in the Derby.

Chris



Subject Written By Posted
Nobody Asked Me, But... (787 Views) TGJB 02/18/2004 01:24PM
Re: Nobody Asked Me, But... (511 Views) Michael D. 02/18/2004 03:54PM
Re: Nobody Asked Me, But... (504 Views) derby1592 02/19/2004 01:23AM
Sir Oscar (473 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/19/2004 04:42AM
Re: Nobody Asked Me, But... (519 Views) TGJB 02/19/2004 02:06PM
TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (464 Views) derby1592 02/19/2004 08:30PM
Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (546 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/19/2004 10:30PM
Sammy Davis (612 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/21/2004 06:42PM
Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (495 Views) TGJB 02/20/2004 12:52PM
Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (489 Views) Michael D. 02/20/2004 02:05PM
Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (533 Views) derby1592 02/20/2004 02:38PM
Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (504 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/20/2004 05:17PM
Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (521 Views) derby1592 02/20/2004 05:53PM
Re: TGJB - You hit on exactly the right future book question (565 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 02/20/2004 07:26PM
HEY BROWN ! (500 Views) Michael D. 02/21/2004 09:55PM
Quintans Gold Rush (495 Views) Silver Charm 02/20/2004 02:37PM
Re: Quintans Gold Rush (559 Views) derby1592 02/20/2004 02:46PM


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