Concur on it being an outstanding betting race...maybe too outstanding...deep is good but chaos maybe lessons the potential value? No fave has won it since they switched to the poly.

Richie and Toppled already with a great job of identifying the two that surely seem the best value, could probably just stop there. BUT...it's derby season and this is what we do so here goes:

Asserting Bear 15:1 - Got down to a fig on the outskirts of contention 2 back, then bounced on good rest (although had developed a lot to that point), now back on good rest. Seem surface agnostic. Rail helps to overcome this one's tendency to get wide trips. There are better long shots in here.

Extrasexyhipzster 15:1 - last one almost irrel as buried at start, 6 weeks, 2 good works over the track to acclimatize, dam's best ever fig was on sythn, at 3 and 4.
But really with this guy it comes down to number power. Two figs a point faster than anyone else has ever run and even his secondary is as fast as almost all the rest's tops. Two concerns - is he just a one turner and Trombetta's record at Keeneland is terrible. But at the ML, more than enough leeway in the odds to take big shot with him.

Pablo Del Monte 12:1 - clearly pointed to this race since HUTCH, great timeing, bullets over the surface, here for a month, ran 2yo (fast) top here, so likes the track. Ward obviously goes just fine at this track and the sire gives hope that the route will not be an impediment for him. Sexy is faster but I think this one is more likely to run a new top, which with his excellent draw would give him a big shot.

Harry's Holiday 10:1 - short term pattern not horrible but pair up seems more likely on short rest. But gets ROSIE and the race shape show CLEAR LEAD, 1w1w trip goes a long way to gain the extra point or two he needs on SEXY & PDM. Because of the jock and the race shape definite contender.

Bobby's Kitten 3:1 - Ken Ramsey's 3rd shot in a month to get to the derby. The first two won their races. Clearly pointed here since the breeders cup, dam side certainly not bad for synth, 1 sib and dam career tops on it, other sib not bad on it, plus poly quasi turf anyway & KJ's just 0.50 diff, 1 breeze over it. He does come in slower than some others but last was h?. Like PDM, almost assured of running a new top. Will it be good enough. As the fave want no part of him as a key but hard to toss completely either.

Coltimus Prime 20:1 - best races on Wood poly but still much too slow

Casiguapo 30:1 - lots of time since last, but he's way too slow even if poly moved him up, which based on Sightseein'g stats, is not going to happen…also Sighseeing's don't improve from 2-3, and he might just be a sprinter.

Dance with Fate 12:1 - Excellent pattern (33% new top Thoro Pattern), excellent rest, his (and his sire's) preferred surface, trainer has been pointing for this (like a few of these it seems) since the Breeders Cup. In just 3 starts at KEE Eurton has done well. Can easily see a new top but it probably still won't be good enough as he comes in slower than many and even his 2yo top is not fast. And he's out posted by a few of the faster ones.

Big Bazinga 20:1 - My favourite name for a horse on the entire Derby Trail this year. Clearly his preferred surface but with short rest coming in hard to see required fwd move of 3 points (at least) to even contend.

So Lonesome 50:1 - tempted to just say he'll live up to his name coming home down the stretch...but in the interests of completeness: ped both sides not horrible for synth and trainer going well but he'd need to explode to even consider contention

Coastline 8:1 - doesn't mind poly, only dev'd 2 pts from 2yo top, but expected odds are light, only 3 weeks rest, and jock is a disaster (check out his Path info) especially with wide draw. Casse ROI at Kee no great joy either. Not for me.

Vinceramos 8:1 - Got down to a good one in his last, supposedly got over poly surface at 2yo in training…in very small sample size PoTN's have gone very well over poly. Vince has never gone backwards has good timing and the trainer obviously doesn't hurt. Post is a disaster though. Race shape shows some speed to possibly mitigate that. But his jock really helps. Prado, at all costs, will save ground. So have to think that alleviates a lot of the draw concern. Don't often get this trainer at these odds. He's a use for me.

Medal Count 4.5:1 - did not run as well as people think last week, race disguised by 1w2w trip, which he is not getting on SAT, too slow without 3 pt improve at least which is not coming on 1wk res. TOSS

Gala Award 5:1 - sire bad on synth but also bad on turf and he has gone well on turf himself, dam side more neutral but even with god rest and slight fwd move still not quite in frame figure wise plus will lose lots of ground and Overland Jonny V no help. Kind of odd that a horse from this barn, by this sire has never been tried on the dirt yet. At the odds and on the outside of 14 can easily pass over.

Also Eligible - Divine Oath 12:1 - both sides of ped show affinity for poly, great timing, likely to run a new top as only 3rd career start, but needs too as not fast enough to contend yet. Connx have been trying to get him into races but lack of earnings have kept him out. Even if draws in he does so into the 14th hole. Lep much more ground conscious than JV but he'd need a huge leap forward to overcome the draw and the other fast ones.

Summary

With the 2nd and 3rd choices on the morning line drawing out in Artemous, there is value in the race. SEXY on number power (and if you forgive the disastrous start in the last) pattern, and PDM on surface affinity, fast already, and likelihood of running a new top today. I'm not wild about Harry's timing but I am about his jock and the race shape. Vince can be used as well, so long as he doesn't get bet. The real conundrum is what to do with Bobby's Kitten? If he wasn't owned and trained by these connections, on the face of it, he'd be a toss as the fave. Without any improvement at all the three just to his inside are already a minimum of 2.25 points faster. But it is these connections. I guess for a small play just the top two to win and maybe an exacta and for those with deeper pockets the others listed below.

Definitely interested in anyone else's thoughts on the race, and specifically on the fave.