"Inefficiencies in exacta pools?" I have to interpret that to mean payouts that don't return fairly and that they bet other exactas in those pools that provide more value. Maybe RTF over Value Plus would be an "inefficient exacta"?

I know theres sharp cookies that play these value angles. I just can't get wrapped up in them, probably because I'm not that smart, but to me the game will always first and foremost be about identifying winners on performance rather than odds. Which is not to say that I don't glance at the payout probabilities and bet because they are generous, but I'll only do that if I've at least come up with a horse I think has winning performance potential. I'm not a big place and show bettor, but I've discovered the computer does the payout calculation for you and I made a couple of place and show bets Saturday based upon the probables. To my chagrin the odds changed late and cut my payout in half. But if you're looking for value in straight bet pools this computer betting is a new tool for it. But, I can't count the number times I've seen big money come down and get lost on horses that made no sense. I don't believe in "smart money". The only smart money I know of is that which I bet and its not always smart. My problem when I go bad is that I'm over selective. I've lost tri's when I've keyed a 20-1 winner and didn't go "all" for third. I've done it many times, though not at 20-1. I've bet straight tris heavily of A-B-C and not bet A-C-B. I get that confident in my ability sometimes and I pay for it. I'm good at the handicapping part and sometimes poor at the money allocation part. Its what makes it all so interesting. However, value is an important factor and I've come to have greater regard for it since visiting here. If it were only about the science of value however, I'd have nothing to do with it. Theres no romance in a selection that only considers fair payouts.



Post Edited (03-15-04 04:24)