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Exacta Pool Inefficiencies (569 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: March 15, 2004 09:03AM

My guess is that they're talking about exacta prices that are out of line with the win prices of the horses involved.

For example, Horse A might be 3/1 in the win pool, but someone armed with a computer (and complete, last-minute exacta pool info) might find that, by playing all of the exactas with Horse A on top the right number of times, they can guarantee themselves a payout of $1,000 (if Horse A wins) for only $200, effectively getting 4/1 on Horse A through the exacta pools. If the exacta pools were in line with the win pools (a so-called "efficient" market), the exacta prices on Horse A would be lower, so that they'd have to pay $250 to get $1000.

It's easy to imagine why exacta prices would be screwy. There's just too much information to process, espcially with large fields (the GM said Tampa has an average field size of 10), so I assume that bettors follow some shared strategies that result in exacta prices yielded by those strategies being too low, and other prices being too high. I've never looked closely for patterns, but I have noticed, for example, that exactas where a trainer's uncoupled entry runs 1-2 tend not to pay very well.

You're right that there's no romance in this kind of stuff, but people betting big dollars aren't in it for the romance.




Subject Written By Posted
Rebates - I've Got Questions (872 Views) BitPlayer 03/10/2004 11:33PM
Re: Rebates - I've Got Questions (512 Views) TGJB 03/11/2004 03:35PM
The Basics of Batch Wagering. (581 Views) Mall 03/11/2004 04:53PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (564 Views) TGJB 03/11/2004 05:34PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (624 Views) Mall 03/11/2004 09:47PM
Don't Focus on Past-Posting (498 Views) BitPlayer 03/11/2004 11:13PM
Re: Don't Focus on Past-Posting (518 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/12/2004 01:17AM
Re: Don't Focus on Past-Posting (621 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/16/2004 11:12PM
Tampa's Perspective (533 Views) BitPlayer 03/12/2004 08:51AM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (592 Views) TGJB 03/12/2004 02:01PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (532 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/14/2004 10:06PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (556 Views) BitPlayer 03/14/2004 11:07PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (591 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 03/15/2004 03:01AM
Exacta Pool Inefficiencies (569 Views) BitPlayer 03/15/2004 09:03AM
Re: Exacta Pool Inefficiencies (596 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 03/15/2004 09:31AM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (583 Views) Mall 03/15/2004 11:16AM
Panel discussion on rebates (523 Views) Thehoarsehorseplayer 03/11/2004 04:02PM
Re: Panel discussion on rebates (490 Views) BitPlayer 03/11/2004 07:06PM
You got that right BitPlayer (580 Views) Thehoarsehorseplayer 03/11/2004 08:11PM
Re: You got that right BitPlayer (518 Views) gowand 03/11/2004 10:47PM


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