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Exacta Pool Inefficiencies (574 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: March 15, 2004 09:03AM

My guess is that they're talking about exacta prices that are out of line with the win prices of the horses involved.

For example, Horse A might be 3/1 in the win pool, but someone armed with a computer (and complete, last-minute exacta pool info) might find that, by playing all of the exactas with Horse A on top the right number of times, they can guarantee themselves a payout of $1,000 (if Horse A wins) for only $200, effectively getting 4/1 on Horse A through the exacta pools. If the exacta pools were in line with the win pools (a so-called "efficient" market), the exacta prices on Horse A would be lower, so that they'd have to pay $250 to get $1000.

It's easy to imagine why exacta prices would be screwy. There's just too much information to process, espcially with large fields (the GM said Tampa has an average field size of 10), so I assume that bettors follow some shared strategies that result in exacta prices yielded by those strategies being too low, and other prices being too high. I've never looked closely for patterns, but I have noticed, for example, that exactas where a trainer's uncoupled entry runs 1-2 tend not to pay very well.

You're right that there's no romance in this kind of stuff, but people betting big dollars aren't in it for the romance.




Subject Written By Posted
Rebates - I've Got Questions (883 Views) BitPlayer 03/10/2004 11:33PM
Re: Rebates - I've Got Questions (517 Views) TGJB 03/11/2004 03:35PM
The Basics of Batch Wagering. (584 Views) Mall 03/11/2004 04:53PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (567 Views) TGJB 03/11/2004 05:34PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (628 Views) Mall 03/11/2004 09:47PM
Don't Focus on Past-Posting (502 Views) BitPlayer 03/11/2004 11:13PM
Re: Don't Focus on Past-Posting (522 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/12/2004 01:17AM
Re: Don't Focus on Past-Posting (626 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/16/2004 11:12PM
Tampa's Perspective (538 Views) BitPlayer 03/12/2004 08:51AM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (596 Views) TGJB 03/12/2004 02:01PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (538 Views) Boscar Obarra 03/14/2004 10:06PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (562 Views) BitPlayer 03/14/2004 11:07PM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (595 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 03/15/2004 03:01AM
Exacta Pool Inefficiencies (574 Views) BitPlayer 03/15/2004 09:03AM
Re: Exacta Pool Inefficiencies (601 Views) Chuckles_the_Clown2 03/15/2004 09:31AM
Re: The Basics of Batch Wagering. (588 Views) Mall 03/15/2004 11:16AM
Panel discussion on rebates (526 Views) Thehoarsehorseplayer 03/11/2004 04:02PM
Re: Panel discussion on rebates (495 Views) BitPlayer 03/11/2004 07:06PM
You got that right BitPlayer (584 Views) Thehoarsehorseplayer 03/11/2004 08:11PM
Re: You got that right BitPlayer (523 Views) gowand 03/11/2004 10:47PM


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