I'm looking forward to seeing a better replay of the Wood. Tapit was a fraction of a stride from missing the Derby. I'll be surprised if the whip didn't come out. It was a long stretch grind for him once he reached the leaders and I believe with the early energy savings he should have motored by more easily. I'm not gonna be at ease with him until the barn comments on that erratic stretch behavior, which is not to say that I'll believe what the barn says. Caveat, I haven't analyzed the race yet it may be the competition was that good coming home.

I did not detect a rail bias. I thought the one turn races were quick and naturally the quick horses found themselves on the rail. I'll review the charts for the last few days there, but if there was a rail bias it escaped me. If there was it certainly didn't help Value Plus or Sinister G.

Regarding the Wood time and fractions, there were only a couple two turn races Wood day and one was a distance rarely run. The quickish times of the one turn races can't be compared to races over a part of the track that the others didn't encounter. Its a ticklish day in that regard. Making speed figures for two turns on days like Wood Memorial day is one of the most perilous aspects to figure making. Its hard to say with certainty how fast or slow that race was.

Generally, a 1:49 in New York is better than a 1:49 at Santa Anita or Keeneland and not as good as a 1:49 at Oaklawn.

I might as well come out of the closet. I like rooms full of beautiful naked woman. I'm talking about the Smarty Jones Closet. He's gonna be low odds and nothing I say is gonna drive them down further because there are issues to overcome. Pedigree being one. But he's been my favorite for a long time, though I had the itchy feeling about Eurosilver and now I don't have to worry about that. My main concern with Smarty is cumulative big efforts and I thought he looked a little tired after the Ark Derby. Borregos inroads the last sixteenth are not what I'm referring to. The other problem is rating. I'd like to see him rate in 3rd or 4th, but he seems intent to want to rate just off the leader. My instructions would probably be to rate just off of Pollards Vision who I think is also a much better horse than people realize. If Smarty can overcome the big efforts and rate a little further back behind Lionheart, Sinister G. and Pollards Vision. (Hes shown no inclination to do it yet) I think he's the easiest kind of winner. I'll be comfortable with a 47 and change half at Churchill and I don't think they'll get down significantly faster than that. I think Smarty is going to win the Derby and I don't think its gonna be close. I have to figure the T number for the Ark is tops for the 9 mark preps with Pollard's race 2nd. (Since reconsidered after analyzing the Bluegrass card)

CtC



Post Edited (04-13-04 00:11)