Mathcapper Wrote:
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> You’re right that the horizontals should, on
> average, pay more than the equivalent win parlay.
> This is because, even though the takeout on
> horizontal exotic bets is higher than on win bets,
> you only get hit with that takeout once. The more
> races involved in the bet, the greater this
> effect.
>
> At Delmar, the math implies the bets should pay,
> on average:
>
> DD: +8.1% more than the win parlay
> Pk3: +26.2% more than the win parlay
> Pk4: +49.2% more than the win parlay
>
> In the results you posted:
>
> $2DD paid $233.40. This was -10.5% less than the
> $260.76 win parlay. The expected payout was
> $260.76 x 1.081 = $282.
> $1Pk3 paid $4,543.10. This was +92.5% more than
> the $2,359.88 win parlay. The expected payout was
> $2,359.88 x 1.262 = $2,978.
> $.50Pk4 paid $7,900.05. This was -19.3% less than
> the $9,793.49 parlay. The expected payout was
> $9,793.49 x 1.492 = $14,612.
>
> As Boscar noted, results can vary widely between
> any individual sequence, but over the long run
> they do converge on the expected payout based on
> the math.
>
> A couple of years ago I looked at the results for
> the winter/spring meet at Santa Anita to confirm
> the math. Even though my sample size was only 80
> days, I found that the results were already
> converging to the expected averages:
>
> 2012 Santa Anita Winter/Spring Meet (Races 1-5
> early Pick 5 sequence - 80 days)
>
> Median DD payout: +12.9% more than the win parlay
> vs. +8.1% expected
> Median Pk3 payout: +32.2% more than the win parlay
> vs. +26.2% expected
> Median Pk4 payout: +61.2% more than the win parlay
> vs. +49.2% expected
>
> Two thirds of the DD payouts fell between -13% and
> +42% of the win parlay vs. the +8.1% expected
> average
> Two thirds of the Pk3 payouts fell between +7% and
> +65% of the win parlay vs. the +26.2% expected
> average
> Two thirds of the Pk4 payouts fell between +11%
> and +110% of the win parlay vs. the +49.2%
> expected average
>
> This should give you an idea of expected payoff
> for each type of horizontal wager and the
> variation you are likely to see around those
> expected payoffs.
>
> - Rocky

Thanks tons! This is fascinating stuff. Based on your numbers, it seems like the Pick 4 on this particular day (Saturday) was a true outlier. Expected would have been $14,612 and actual was $7,900....compared to what looks like the "normal" range, it would look like something like this should only happen very few times in a relatively long period of time. I could see the situation occurring where the pool is not big enough to support what some outcomes "should" be, but this was a saturday at Del Mar pool that should not have been size hampered (I would think). However, taking Boscar's point....I bet that it easily could have been something like an extra $10 on the combination is enough to cause the skew.