Re: Materiality (1049 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 14, 2015 12:44PM
covelj70 Wrote:
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> why is this horse 12-1 on the early Morning Line?
>
> Am I missing something?
>
> 1) He's the fastest horse coming into the race
> 2) He has won twice going 1 1/8, something no one
> else in the field has done
> 3) He is the only one of the top contenders to
> beat another good horse (Dortomund, AP, Frosted,
> Firing Line and Carpe Diem all beat tin cans in
> the final tune-up)
> 4) He has tactical speed that will keep him out of
> trouble
>
> Is it really because he didn't run as a 2 year
> old? He won on Jan. 11th. So if he had run 12
> days earlier, that is somehow supposed to matter 5
> months later? That's the dumbest thing I have ever
> heard
>
> In terms of seasoning and foundation
>
> 1) He has two 1 1/8 races which no one else has,
> not to mention on a track everyone considered deep
> and tiring which only adds to the fitness level
> 2) Had a tough stretch dual which no one else in
> the top flight had to further build foundation
> 3) most importantly, he bounced out of the Florida
> Derby in tremendous shape with a monster breeze
> last weekend (came home in 22 and change in that
> breeze). That's the truest test of how much
> foundation a horse has. If he didn't have enough
> foundation, he would have been gutted by that
> race.
>
>
> Materiality may not win because American Pharoah
> may just be that brilliant or Materiality gets a
> bad post, etc but I don't understand why he's 12-1
> right now when the horses ahead of him are a)
> slower, b) less battle tested, and c) no better
> pedigree wise than he is for the 1 1/4
>
> If there's something other than foundation and the
> no 2 year old race (which is totally silly),
> please let me know
Also, assuming his sheet reads the way I expect it to read, he has a very important pattern in that he has not yet hit a reaction point. In my experience, it is more risky to give a horse a reaction before it first gives you a reaction. On one hand, while a lot of people view the light experience as a downside, there is an upside to it as well which is that the horse still has more to gain from more experience that the others already have. I suspect that 12-1 will look like an enticing price for this horse. One thing that is scary is that these same principles may suggest that American Pharoah is ready for an additional forward move in the Derby. Something tells me we may see the best fig ever in a Derby this year. Has anybody ever made a top 10 or top 20 of the best figs ever run in the derby? That would be an interesting list to see. I would like to see where the best fig to not win the derby fits in with all the winners.