louisvilleguy1111 Wrote:
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> This whole talk of brilliance is kinda getting old
> if you ask me he has beat ABSOLUTELY nothing
> simple as that. Oh the way he moves is
> breathtaking!! Please lets all take a breath and
> put the Kool Aid container down for a moment. Look
> at the horses he has beaten this year in those two
> races at Oaklawn list just one of them that you
> really see winning a Grade 1 not this year but
> EVER!!! Talk about paid workouts...
>
> If he wins the Derby then I will start to look at
> him and consider the term "Brilliance" being used
> until then he's a total bet against for the win.
> The horse had foot problems in the past he has
> been babied ever since and he is on a tight
> schedule coming into the Derby. This always in the
> past has spelled
> P-L-A-Y A-G-A-I-N-S-T!
>
> I don't care how much the trainer thinks of this
> horse, Baffert thought the same of Point Given,
> Looking at Lucky, Bode and a couple others going
> into the Derby through the years and he totally
> got his balls whacked all those times.
> This is looking like a very good crop of 3 year
> old's and not a year you want to be playing catch
> up or taking it easy on your horse (trying to not
> hurt him further). He will be totally off all my
> tickets on the Win and Place end. I could see him
> maybe holding on for Show at the very best.
>
> I think the Derby once again runs through FL this
> winter... Yes there are several running all over
> the different parts of the country that could show
> up in the gimmicks but Frosted, Carpe Diem,
> Upstart and Materiality all look better to me then
> AP. Dortmund is the only horse that scares me that
> has been running outside of Florida that I could
> see winning the race. I could see me using him as
> well on the Win end based on his odds and post
> position.
>
> So go ahead fire away at me cause I don't think
> the second coming of Seattle Slew is here among us
> but I think your an absolute fool to bet AP to win
> on any ticket in this years running of the KY
> Derby.

Winning the Derby and having brilliance are not mutually exclusive.

Also, I wouldn't say that Bodemeister got his "balls kicked in".

I think we can also say Point Given was a pretty decent horse.

It seems that we have 2 different discussions here. You are saying he's a toss for the Derby, which at the low odds and physical issues isn't a bad idea.

That doesn't discount what many experienced observers have to say about this horse. Losing in the Derby wouldn't mean that those opinions of AP aren't valid. Many exceptional horses have lost in the Derby and gone on to have excellent careers.

P-Dub