Re: american pharoah...CD arrival picture (497 Views)
Posted by:
mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: April 18, 2015 12:12AM
Well, this is a figure making board. So the discussion probably should start there. But the top figure horse doesn't always win or hit the board, especially in this race. They've got to handle the stress to get the trip, and they've got to get that extra 1/8th.
Last year, when Chrome drew the 5 post I said he would not likely get the outside stalking trip he needed to run his race. I based that on watching him trying to bite another horse in the stretch in an earlier race he ran when he got pinned inside. He HATED being inside and freaked. I figured he would get stuck inside at CD and waste his energy trying to get out. I completely tossed him on most of my tickets.
Well, he received an outstanding ride, made his trip and won. So I was wrong. And I was wrong again in the Preakness. But I did get out in the Belmont.
This game is as much about playing percentages as anything else. And I would still play that race that way all over again. When people say you can beat the race but not the races I disagree 100%. It's the opposite that's true.
I haven't seen AP do anything that makes me think he can't run his race. But he hasn't done anything to make me know that he can and there's others that have. To my eye, so far AP's just been fast enough to beat up on a bunch of over matched colts at a 1 1/16 and 1 1/8. He hasn't taken dirt. He hasn't overcome trouble. He was on a tight schedule to get here. And this crop is very, very good. So I'm not going to annoint him. Quality Road looked unbeatable at 1 1/8, but I said right here on this board that he would never win at 1 1/4 and he never did.
Don't get me wrong. I don't plan to burn up my money. I'll see how AP trains. And if he looks lights out and draws well enough where u could see the race setting up for him then so be it. But if u put a gun to my head right now and said how you gonna bet it, I say at the 4-1 or so odds- and more importantly as a heavy use on most exotic tickets- the percentage play is to go against him.