pedigree: average to below average for 10f. (a bit like WE). tale of the cat's offspring win at an average distance of 6.6f, quite short. tg figures also point towards TOTC producing short winded runners. average winning distance for broodmare sire (mr leader) is 7.5f, decent, but not ideal for 10f runners. overall, female family is mixed with sprinters and routers. with hail to reason and nijinski in his pedigree, dosage is on the low side (3.0). stretching from 9f to 10f, i would expect a horse with LH's pedigree to regress a bit, but would not be shocked if he got a bit brave.

pace scenerio: PV, QGR, and SJ should all be running fast early (expecting the connections of SG to run next in a race where a "5-6" will be competitive). if LH runs faster than :47, he will be on the lead, if he runs slower than that, he will have company. bottom line: LH should be able to get the lead, but will have to run a demanding opening half to be alone (for a 10f race).

the #'s: as a 2 yr old, the move forward when stretching from 6f to 7f was encouraging, but when stretching to 1 1/16m off 5 weeks rest, LH regressed by a few lengths. the late pace # was not all that good either (90 on the bris scale). after a nice freshening, LH came back in march, and ran a very fast mile, but once again, ran slow late in the race (another 90 late pace #). after a 5 weeks rest, LH comes back and runs one of the fastest derby preps ever over the kee strip. while kee is well known for favoring front running horses, the track that day was not all that fast, and LH still ran a quick 1:49.2, while losing ground by running a bit wide. i was impressed by his race. the overal # of the race was excellent, and the late pace # was average (103)..........

my take on LH is this: i have never thought LH would be a great router, yet i still singled him in the blue grass, mainly because the race was at keenland. so i am stuck asking myself these questions: will LH follow the usual path of speedball that runs well in the blue grass, then flops in the derby??? will LH bounce in the derby because the blue grass took so much out of him??? will LH pull the same stunt as WE, catching some of the other speed off guard while taking advantage of a derby day track that always seems to be juiced up??? right now i am leaning towards tossing the horse if the track is playing neutral on derby day, and using him only in the 3 and 4 spots if the track is playing fast.