If you look at the charts you'll see Keeneland played very fairly to all pace styles Bluegrass Day. That fact and the good closing fractions for the top two in the Bluegrass is the best evidence in my opinion for saying a race over that very quirky surface is as legitimately big as the figure makers have made it. I know that last sentence sounds illogical.

The last horse to truly run well in the Bluegrass and win was Strike the Gold.

Sea Hero ran fourth there.

Thunder Gulch ran fourth as well. No Derby winner has run the Bluegrass since Thunder Gulch and in my opinion the track is a different track now than it was then. I haven't trusted that track since Pulpit looked so impressive there.

Heres one for TGJB, if someone is inclined and has the time to look into it. What were the T-Graph figures for the winners of the 9 mark major preps in 1997:

Santa Anita Derby
Bluegrass
Wood
Arkansas Derby
Fla. Derby

MO, I also want to comment here on the BRIS pace figures you cited:

Lion Heart - 108-105

Sinister G.-94-91-94-106(Mud,stopped)-100-98

With Sinister that Wood was on a day the one turn races were very fast and the exact nature of the two turn variant very much debatable. Jerry breaks one and two turn races and I'm aware of his figures for the Wood and am in accord with them. But I have to wonder if Jerry could even give you a two turn variant upon which to base a pace figure upon:

4up,SHdcp,~35K,10.5:24.26, 49.35, 1:14.86, 1:39.24, 2:03.41, 2:09.63
3yr,750k,9f: 23.74, 47.12, 1:11.40, 1:37.03, 1:49.70
___________________________

3Up,MSW,7f:23.07, 45.96, 1:10.31, 1:22.80
4up,NW2X,8f:22.69, 44.91, 1:09.42, 1:35.41
3up,MSW,7f:22.68, 45.58, 1:10.32, 1:23.46
3up,NW2L,8f:22.75, 45.03, 1:09.85, 1:35.16
4up,NW1X,7f:22.09, 44.23, 1:08.65, 1:21.61
3yr,150K,7f:22.39, 44.39, 1:08.27, 1:20.67
3up,350k,7f:21.77, 43.50, 1:07.52, 1:20.22
4up,NYNW2X,8f:22.97, 45.99, 1:10.33, 1:36.66

I wonder about BRIS's methodology for one vs two turns.

As for Sinister's Lanes End variant, I have significant reason to believe he actually ran a much quicker pace variant than BRIS has credited him with.

Even BRIS has apparently credited Sinister with a 106 at two turns back a few races. To my mind you have to reach that far back to get a fair approximation of Sinisters two turn pace ability. Even then, I wouldn't trust BRIS.

also thanx silver...u did spoil my Keeneland theory though lol



Post Edited (04-23-04 23:06)