Very impressive analysis Chris. Thank you.

The fractions aren't as significant to me as the horses that set them and thats what I'd like to know. I attempted to ascertain that. Though the source I'm using doesnt have fractional leaders:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1997.html

2003- Brancusi/Peace Rules
2002- 47:04 War Emblem (wire job)
2001- Songandaprayer/Millenium Wind
2000- Graeme Hall
1999- 47:88 (Valhol..slow track)
1998- Old Trieste, stumbled led for a mile
1997- 47:2 Pulpit (hung on for 4th)
1996- Honor and Glory
1995- Serena's Song/Wild Syn (I enjoyed reading this chart...it said Afternoon Deelites didn't like my selection "Jumron" and quote "attempted to savage him out of the gate"...lol
1994- 47:1 (wire job)
1993- Storm Tower (Perkins trainee)
1992- 47:2 Dance Floor held on for 3rd
1991- Sea Cadet/Forty Something
1990- Real Cash (Lukas trainee)
1989- Houston
1988- Winning Colors (wire job)
1987- Capote (not sure though sounds contested)
1986- Groovy
1985- Spend a Buck (wire job)

When you view the horses you see some decent quality hot pace winners.

You see some that were good horses but maybe not 10 mark horses like Old Trieste had a horrible start) and Sea Cadet and Serena's Song and Peace Rules. ( I take that back about Sea Cadet, he won at 10 marks at Gulfstream)

Then you also see horses that really weren't Derby horses like Houston and Goovy and Real Cash.

The point being if the pace goes below 47 a quality Derby horse can win. But the other part of that issue is who are the quality Derby horses without the benefit of hindsight? Then there is the consideration of a 47 plus pace. The results tend to indicate even at that more moderate pace it still takes a horse with some 10 mark ability to win. You could argue that Go for Gin and War Emblem don't really fit that bill, but its argueable.



Post Edited (04-24-04 00:36)