Re: Pattern Question (736 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: April 24, 2015 12:45AM
I think Upstart has the better pattern. Frosted reacted the 1st time he broke through in the Remsen, it took him 4.5 months and 3 races to reach (and actually surpass) his 2yo top. If he reacts again, he'll be a non factor in the Derby.
Right off the bat, Upstart is a faster horse. With the exception of his debut, which he won by over 5 lengths and the Breeder's Cup he's been running very fast. After hitting a 2yo top he reacted with an x in the Breeder's Cup. Off 2.5 months, he immediately came back with a new top (beating Frosted) reacted while finishing 1st in the FOY and immediately came back to his top next out. If the man who knows more about these numbers and reactions recommended his purchase and didn't think all those fast numbers put him on the eve of destruction, I have to go with Upstart.
Even if he reacts like the last time, Upstart's still capable of being a major player in the Derby. The unknown factor for this race is the infection & whether it takes anything off his game. If Frosted has the same reaction as last time he ran huge, he'll be lucky to be rounding back into form around the time they run the Travers.