Bet Twice Wrote:
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> I'm waiting for the final package before I
> purchase, so haven't seen Upstart's latest sheet
> but Frosted's pattern screams bounce to me. The
> surgery muddies the water a little but I'm willing
> to take a stand against.

I think that a quick look may trigger the thought that he screams bounce....he made a big jump up at the end of last year and bounced in Florida and then just did the same in the Wood so on quick inspection you might expect the same bounce.

HOWEVER, I would not be so fast to reach that conclusion. First, the big jump up at the end of the 2yo year may not be as nearly a big jump up as it may appear. For one thing, it was first Lasix. I view first Lasix as sort of making a new horse....so if he was a 4 before that and then ran a zero, then he is a zero horse now. The other thing is that he was a lightly raced improving 2 year old....just because he pre-lasix numbers were slow, it is not right to use those to say the first Lasix was such a big jump if those numbers were his early races and he was just learning and figuring this stuff out.

Then, the bounce in florida may well be associated with acclimatization factors or the throat factors. whatever figure you give him in the Wood, it indicates the two florida races were temporary setbacks whatever they were and in the Wood he is coming back to what he was. Whether that is a pair up of the two year old number or it was a two point top giving credit for the extra time experience and development, the point is that it is early in this horse's career to say he has a bounce tendency. People are quicker to give horses' bounces than the horses are to give you the bounces. Good three year olds running in consecutive grade 1 races should be pairing up and moving forward and not going back. Obviously, Frosted could do anything, but I for one would be not so hasty to just assume he is a prime bounce candidate.

BTW, there are people here casting doubt on the figure he ran saying it should have been slower. I do not question the figures, so I am not in that camp. HOWEVER, for anybody who may be so inclined to think that way, add two points to his figure....if you do that....then he paired up his two year old top winning the Wood. TO me that would be an insanely explosive pattern and I would expect him to run a new top in the Derby Anyway. So, if that is what you would do if he ran a little slower, should he be penalized because he ran two points faster? Two year olds turning three are supposed to improve between November and April.