Re: Divne Intervention (606 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: April 25, 2004 08:31PM
This is obviously an issue for Jerry, but I'll chime in with what I understand of it.
The larger the "0" Top (O being a symbol in this formula and not a value) in consideration of previous tops and the amount of progression in a developing horse, the greater the chance the "2" (A two point regression from the 0 value) will result in an X. (A significant regression...I'll leave what that means for others to define)
A two point regression is four lengths so thats showing some loss of blood generally.
I don't know how it holds up statistically. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. But a three point top is fairly signifcant, but you have factor a developing horse and the amount of developement.
0-2-X to my mind is a "beat the favorite" strategy. If you don't like his odds and the graph shows 0-2-X possibility thats when you take a shot.