Re: AP and Big Brown (523 Views)
Posted by:
beazley (IP Logged)
Date: May 17, 2015 05:41PM
Mr Z looked like a good bet to pair or break through (per the analysis) but was too slow going in. He even has some trouble in KD as jock was instructed to keep clear of AP. He has run well on the slop. He looked like he handled it okay yesterday too. He was beat 17 lengths. Assuming he lost 2 lengths of ground, AP beat him by 7.5 on TG scale. Puts him -3 range again.
Dort clearly ran an off or X. If Dort is a point faster in SA Derby and a point slower in KY Derby (seems reasonable) he was primed to regress and did since he only finished a couple lengths ahead of Z.
It TB is 2 points faster Divining Rod has a nice line coming in (not choppy) and could have run a top yesterday. If he ran a 2 that puts AP in -2 range which could be a pair of Derby if you had that a point slower.
Not obvious that AP went backwards at all in Preakness.
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