Jbelfior

I think they'll run a 47 or slower unless the track is super juiced.

Assume Limehouse and Sword kick it up a bit and Rion Hart is off a half step slow, then maybe a rush up gets the half under 47, otherwise I really don't see them going much faster than that.

The key will be the track. On recent Derby's its been seriously juiced and though juiced its tended to be less than ideal for front runners, but the last two years front runners certainly faired well. If the track is a 2:03 plus track, even a 2:02 track I would factor the closers to do well. We have to wait and see. If its a 2:01 track horses like Rion and Smarty have a big chance factoring projected pace and could win on a 46 and change. That said each fifth under 47 with Rion on the lead seriously cuts this horses chances down. He's just not a real big heart horse.



Post Edited (04-30-04 01:05)