In attempting to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby for the third year running the gamblers instinct may have escaped in the interests of finding the most logical winner. The list of positives pertaining to the horse I’m selecting is in aggregate so extensive that selecting another horse would be completely illogical, especially this year trying to maintain a streak. They are as follows and this in no way implies they’ve all been ascertained:

Speed Figures:

No other horse in the field has run as fast and that conclusion is based upon my observations and Thorograph, which is in a different ballpark from the other figure makers. The horse was fast first time and has been fast ever since. Even on a regression last, the colt still ran a negative number spotting significant weight to a nice horse. He broke from far outside and overcame both that post and a muddy track to cruise to a convincing lead and win after rating behind the pace setter. The figure from the Arkansas Derby in all likelihood will win the Kentucky Derby. Much has been made about the lead shrinking and a late lead change. The fact remains the horse closed in twenty five seconds and won while Lion Heart closed in the same factored fraction and lost. The second place finisher in the Arkansas Derby closed as well as the renowned closer, The Cliff’s Edge. It’s difficult to say whether my selection was all out late in the race. When a horse wins unchallenged, who is to say what he could have dug down to find? Borrego never got past him after the wire and he carried lighter weight.

Works at Churchill:

No horse worked better. In fact the works for this selection were so impressive that they took the breath away from all who witnessed them, some saying they had never seen a horse work better. The works weren’t all though. The gallops were just as authoritative. Gallops over a mile under a 170 pound exercise rider who kept the brakes on throughout and according to observers, the horse returned each time hardly taking a deep breath.

Fractional Times:

The splits in this horses races have been consistently fast, but the key word is consistent. The last horse I observed rationing speed so efficiently was Sunday Silence. There doesn’t appear to be another animal in this field so energy efficient. That said Lion Heart has a big internal split and he’s capable of burying most horses that try and run with him. The key to the Derby in my estimation is how fast Lion Heart runs the half and how far back my selection is. If he tries to run right on Lion Heart from the half mile to the six furlong mark it may set the race up for an off pace horse. The off pace horses I favor most are Song of the Sword. (Ran a triple split run in the Lexington) Borrego, (Note the 8 lengths he went wide in the Louisiana Derby) and The Cliff's Edge, (bounce potential factored)

Off Tracks:

With the possibility of an off track how can a convincing nine-furlong win over an off track be ignored?

Negatives:

The negatives are the aforementioned loss of leading margin in the last race and pedigree. Rarely have I seen a horse on its face so lightly pedigreed for the Derby. I don’t think I’ve ever bet one with pedigree this light. However, something is already carrying this horse beyond its apparent pedigree. His dam could run and he has some stamina influences a couple generations back but that doesn’t explain it. Even if he doesn’t win this Derby he’s still a needle in a haystack.

Pace:

After fighting for days over the likely pace, I think its likely that Lion Heart will be the pace setter. However, I also believe Read the Footnotes has pace potential to engage Lion Heart sooner than he would prefer. Whether that develops and is to the benefit of my selection is unclear.

The Wager:

In consideration of the foregoing my selection has to be Smarty Jones. I will key him atop perfectas with Lion Heart, The Cliff’s Edge, Song of the Sword, Read the Footnotes, Borrego and Pollard’s Vision, weighted 35%, 15%, 10%, 5%, 5%, 5%. I will make reverses with Lion Heart, Song of the Sword and The Cliff’s Edge, weighted 15%, 5% and 5%. Lion Heart in case Lion leaves him with too much to do, Song of the Sword, because I sense the most potential for improvement and The Cliff’s Edge on Zito and TGJB. I struggled mightily with what to do with Lion Heart and I’ve settled on making him the most worthy challenger. I will make a small win bet on Song of the Sword. My trifecta key will be Smarty over Lion, Sword, TCE and RTF. I will make a second key with Smarty over Lion, Sword over all I’ve mentioned here as well as Tapit, Birdstone and Friend’s Lake. I’ve covered more bases than I usually do and I'm still leaving out some very good horses. My wagers are scaled back somewhat this Derby year.

Good Luck



Post Edited (05-01-04 15:19)