T Severini Wrote:
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> Two races in Three weeks?
>
> Are you talking the Triple Crown wore him down?

No. We are talking about the cumulative effects of:

1) Huge efforts
2) Multiple cross country trips. It is far more taxing shipping from California to the East Coast, than it is for horses already based east of the Mississippi.
3) Huge efforts followed by short rest.

1+2+3= regression. Its TG performance analysis 101.

> This was AP's first race in a month after a pretty
> easy effort at Monmouth. Unfortunately, I got
> hung up in a Fantasy Football draft and missed the
> chance to ring the bell.

Running a -3 isn't an easy effort, its the fastest he's ever run from a figure standpoint.

Fantasy Football draft. Thankfully, we don't have to read about how you picked up Joe Schmoe in the 8th round.

> Keen Ice was coming on. That Haskell was no
> mirage where Ice closed into a track on a day that
> was difficult. Still AP hung on and ran for second
> and my hope when the time came was to count him
> out. For those with the conviction Saratoga was
> the right place and time to ring up that winning
> ticket though.

Keen Ice was a point slower than AP's figure the last time he fired a -3. Combine that with the travel, Baffert's Spa record, and his reluctance to run him in the first place............agree with you here, those that played Keen Ice had their reasons for doing so.


> Noted the come home fraction was over 26.5
> seconds. Frosted did the deed on a track that to
> my eye, (charts), went slow, fast, slow.......real
> hard to be certain with all the turf racing and
> the lack of dirt heats late.

Agree. JB will have work to do coming up with figures for the card.

> When we projected AP's defeat this track was one
> you had to factor. If AP's owners get cold feet
> now, who can blame them. But their horse should
> relish Keeneland and if they pass they go out
> losing to Keen Ice a horse many said wasn't even
> in the picture. AP's connections need to prove it
> wasn't a fluke!


Baffert wanted to go to Parx (assertion alert), Zayat wanted the Travers. It is a very noble and sporting gesture on his part, and from here whatever he wants to do is fine with me. The problem with running yesterday, is that it makes for awkward spacing into the next race or 2. Run in 4 weeks at SA then another 5 in the BC after a year long campaign where the colt was shipped all over the place? Train up to the BC? This horse has had a long and taxing campaign. If they run in the BC, I think training up to it is the thing to do. I believe M Jellish made that point.

I've already said I think we just saw his last race. Hope I'm wrong.

P-Dub