Re: SMARTY JONES and ThoroGraph's data-based stats... (499 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: May 02, 2004 02:05PM
Agreed on the Lasix. I didn't mention it but I factored it positive.
From my perspective the 0-2-X is a very speculative bet with a developing three year old. If Smarty was 6-5 I probably would have bet him to 0-2-X but essentially he ran at the same odds of the other horse I liked. For me it was a no brainer.
Its too early to speculate whether 4-1 was value, but the chance exists come July we'll look back and say "Sheez, how did we let that horse go?"
I've liked Smarty ever since the Southwest when two horses came to him late and he refused to let them pass. Prado and Two Down were right on him but light on conditioning he would not let them by. 7-2 in the Rebel was generous, even money in the Ark was fair and 4-1 in the Derby on the facts was glorious.
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