To me TCE's pattern suggests this:

1- The big neg 1 effort in the Blue Grass was too much for The Cliff's Edge to duplicate again-which is what was needed to win-running back in 3 weeks.
2- The Preakness will be TCE's 4th race in 8 weeks and just 5 weeks from the big neg 1 top.
3- I can't consider the 3 1/4 TCE ran in the Derby a non-effort or the kind of effort that would move him forward enough to be competitive with just 2 weeks to recover.
4- I don't see anything in Zito's TG figure based stats that indicates a pair-up of a top or a new top can be expected.
5-Aside from the pattern many may either excuse the Derby performance due to the shoes and the track condition or believe the Derby was a better performance than it really was which may lead to TCE being an underlay in the Preakness.

But waht do I know I settled on Friend's Lake and Pro Prado.