Silver Charm wrote:

> All kidding aside it looks like the Derby Numbers are good. I
> don't do figures so take that for what its worth.

Silver I don't do them now and I never did them like Jerry, but I think I can project his means here. Or at least I'll try...lol

The consistent horse recently was Limehouse. He ran a couple of very consistent figures in the Tampa Derby and Bluegrass. I think the Kentucky Derby was an even better race. It appeared Santos gave him a wonderful ride because it does appear hes just a little shy of the top echelon. So Jerry paired him up at 10 marks which is essentially running better...especially on that track and I agree completely with that assessment.

The other horse thats run well every time is Imperialism and he looked to improve some with a better path. I don't think he liked going up tight along the rail in the Santa Anita Derby and I'm still not sure the interference didn't cost him a position. He's a strider that can't be interrupted. Anyway, I'm sure the barn realized that so they sent him wide and he came a runnin. If you look at my split post. You'll see a very odd mile split for him. Thats where he got in trouble is my guess. He figured to improve off the S.A. Derby and I think the 1.5 considering his trouble is about right on. Lion has also been consistent of late and the Derby was very much like his Bluegrass and only that last eighth weakened him some. If it were a 9 mark race, I think Smarty might have been in trouble.

So you have that Triad base of Imperialism, Limehouse and Lion...and from there the performance variables are applied and the numbers are factored and they are what they are. They feel very accurate to me on a tough race to figure properly. Jerry also can rely some upon the modern trend of many horses not firing their best Derby Day. Add it all up and remember he's considering the other races too. I haven't done that, so I'll certainly defer to him....lol Kinda like the Patient does to the Doctor.