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Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (584 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: November 06, 2015 11:04PM

moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here's the chart.
>
> http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/MVR110415
> USA9.pdf
>
>
> I guess people are going to see what they want to
> see. I've been around Finger Lakes long enough to
> know that no pool is too small for someone to try
> to tilt. But, you're not going to have ten guys
> walking out with suitcases full of money. Maybe
> Mathcapper can tell us if any of these pools look
> hinky.

The exotic pools at these smaller tracks obviously won't correlate as well to the win pools (which are generally the most efficient) because the pools are so small.

Having said that, it's pretty clear that the winner was nowhere near 110-1 in the exotics, because if you go strictly off the win odds, the exacta should've paid twice what it did, the tri [u]15x[/u] what it did and the super more than 4x.

Without having handicapped the race, it's hard to say whether or not the horse's fair odds really should've been 110-1, but what the exotic payouts imply for the winning combos is that he was around 50-1 in the ex pool, 6-1(!) in the tri, and 25-1 in the super.

- Rocky



Subject Written By Posted
Bruce Jenner Stakes (1117 Views) shanahan 11/05/2015 07:55PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (815 Views) jp702006 11/05/2015 08:18PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (768 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/05/2015 10:21PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (702 Views) jp702006 11/05/2015 10:50PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (703 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/05/2015 11:50PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (725 Views) jp702006 11/05/2015 11:58PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (478 Views) jp702006 11/23/2015 08:40PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (699 Views) richiebee 11/06/2015 10:32AM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (728 Views) colt 11/06/2015 02:37PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (627 Views) Topcat 11/06/2015 03:30PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (630 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/06/2015 03:46PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (629 Views) moosepalm 11/06/2015 08:34PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (590 Views) jp702006 11/06/2015 09:02PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (584 Views) Mathcapper 11/06/2015 11:04PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (597 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/07/2015 12:33AM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (574 Views) Mathcapper 11/07/2015 01:21AM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (554 Views) moosepalm 11/07/2015 10:36AM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (558 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/07/2015 12:49PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (526 Views) moosepalm 11/07/2015 07:08PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (561 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/07/2015 09:16PM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (556 Views) gadspicks 11/08/2015 02:15AM
Re: Bruce Jenner Stakes (551 Views) metroj 11/07/2015 01:30AM


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