Mathcapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Without having handicapped the race, it's hard to
> say whether or not the horse's fair odds really
> should've been 110-1, but what the exotic payouts
> imply for the winning combos is that he was around
> 50-1 in the ex pool, 6-1(!) in the tri, and 25-1
> in the super.
>
> - Rocky

From the DRF "Ruby", on paper, was probably a little higher than what one would expect her to go off at, lifetime best Beyer of 20, 2015 best of 9, in a race where the Beyer par for Md5000 was 29. Full field of 12 certainly helped the odds but there were others that looked just as hopeless.

Her stand in, Leather Slappin', had a lifetime best Beyer of 64 and a 2015 best of 51, just an average race would put him in the mid 40 BSF range. In other words if he breaks clean he wins.

Same owner/trainer for both horses so it's hard to believe they didn't know the wrong horse was being saddled.