I am looking forward to the TG pattern study info.

In the mean time for what it is worth - this is a summary of various informal and incomplete pattern studies I have done or others have done and shared with me. Keep in mind that these are general and not specific to Derby-caliber, spring 3yos which are probably stronger than 3yos in general. Also, keep in mind that some of this data is a few years old and it does not take into account how big a recent new top was (either absolute or relative to previous top) or the "excuses" for recent off/X races or changes in distance, pace, breeding, etc. and most importantly it does not account for "Super Trainers." These are just very "raw" data and that other stuff needs to be factored in but this is probably in the ball park, regardless.

Smarty Jones (-3.75) top: 10%, pair: 20%, off: 20%, X: 50%

Lion Heart (-1) top: 15%, pair: 20%, off: 25%. X: 40%

The Cliff's Edge (-1) top: 15%, pair: 25%, off: 20%. X: 40%

Rock Hard Ten (1) top: 20%, pair: 25%, off: 25%. X: 30%

Imperialism (1.5) top: 20%, pair: 30%, off: 25%. X: 25%

Borrego (2) top: 15%, pair: 30%, off: 25%. X: 30%

Let's assume it will take at least a "-1" to win the Preakness:

SJ: 40-50 chance at a -1 (30% at a -3.75 or better)
LH: 35% chance at a -1
TCE: 40% chance at a -1
RHT: 10-20% chance at -1
Imp: 10-15% chance at a -1
Borr: 5-10% chance at a -1

So SJ is clearly the most likely winner but there is a 50% chance that he runs an X. So, as contradictory as it may seem, there is probably not going to be a good value win bet in this race but you might get some value in the exotics by tossing out SJ and hoping for the X even though he is the most likely winner by far.

This may just add to the confusion but I thought I would share it with you anyway.

Chris