Derby,

I'm not sure I understand your data...you appear to be making winning projections based upon Tops and not aggregate previous races.

I'd point out that Smarty has just paired -1.75s if you're inclined to believe the T-Graph Derby figs and I certainly am.

I don't know, maybe your data is so expansive it calculates TCE's 9 mark Blugrass -1 followed three weeks later by a 10 mark slop 5 or 6 or whatever he ran ...followed two weeks later by a projection of likely win probability at 9.75 marks.

Maybe you don't consider the slop and distance. I think the bounce-return to form probabilities are a bit harder to handicap than that. Especially in consideration of distances these horses are attempting to negotiate for the first time in their lives. The data that has to be compared has to be compared specifically for the current backdrop. Personally, I dont think theres a good way to factor that off poor efforts at the first crack at distance. Its distance that separates good ones.

My conviction at this time is that Lion Heart is much more likely to run well at distance here on out than TCE.