CTC2,

This is just data plain and simple. You may decide that it has no value whatsoever in handicapping the Preakness.

More specifically to your question regarding The Cliff's edge - The percentages are all relative to the current top (-1 for TCE) just like the new TG trainer stats. TCE just ran an X after a big new top. The percentages I showed approximate how other 3yos with the same top-X pattern did in their next race (with no change in surface (turf/dirt) or distance (sprint/route)). For example, 15% ran a new top, 25% bounced back to the old top, etc. Lots of other factors have not been considered or "filtered" out. For example, some in the sample may have had "super trainers" or excuses for the "X" such as a sloppy track or "lost shoes" or "didn't like the cuppy surface" or "got caught in a speed duel" or whatever else you might think could excuse a poor effort.

If you get too specific you tend to end up with very small sample sizes. This is the "tension" you have to manage to get any value out of such pattern studies. TGJB and I and others have had some interesting conversations on this topic and it really is a challenge to provide something that is specific enough to be useful but general enough to be reliable.

Once TG comes out with the pattern study info, just consider it another weapon in the arsenal. Certainly not THE answer.

Along the lines of some earlier comments in this and other threads, the pattern studies (or your own pattern reads) should only influence your expectations of a good or bad race. They CanNOT predict with certainty the outcome of a particular race.

Using the pattern info above (if you choose to do so), you cannot predict with certainty that Smarty Jones will bounce in the Preakness or conversely that he will win for fun. Either result is consistent with the data but one (the bounce) is more likely than is the other (pair-up or new top which likely leads to an easy win since he is so much faster than the others). The way you should wager depends on how the public is going to play the race. I am guessing that they will likely bet SJ down to about fair value in the win pool but they may overbet him in the exotics since they probably will not believe that the most likely winner of the race also has a 50% chance to run a clunker.

Also, in defense of TGJB's derby analysis (not that it needs one), I think this is pretty much what he said. Smarty Jones was fastest and could possibly blow the field away but there was also a good chance that he could X and that was how TGJB was recommending you play the race since he thought there was better value in the latter approach.

There is no way you can validate or invalidate his assumptions based on the outcome of that single race.

This is concept that seems to be very hard to grasp for most people, which is actually a good thing for some of us given the competitive nature of this game.

Chris



Post Edited (05-10-04 19:46)