Donn Handicap (1626 Views)
Posted by:
johnnym (IP Logged)
Date: February 06, 2016 11:41AM
Great card at the local track today. Can't make it there but I do believe their is a favorite that is beatable..
So hear goes my first Frank D impression..
1)Madefromlucky 116lbs 4-1 m/l.. Comes in with a good 2nd behind Valid on this surface seems to like the Gulf surface with a 3-2-1 record and 6-3-1 at the distance. Coming in light dropping 4 lbs from his last race and getting a inside post after going wide on both turns last race. His numbers are good getting a -1 last race which is a new top..Pattern wise it Seems as though every time this horse runs a new top he regresses just a tad..B horse to me..
2) Closing Bell 114lbs 15-1 M/L.. At first glance a toss but not so fast my friends.. This horse is the light horse in the race getting 114 and 8 lbs lighter than his last race. This horse has ran 7 times 6 of them on grass he is 1-1 on the dirt.. Mott is the trainer here and when Mott goes from turf to dirt he runs a new top 32% of the time..Horse is out of Tapit who do improve from 3-4 while I do not think he wins this is the type of horse to make the TRI juicy..C horse
3) Mshawish: 117lbs 7-2 M/L Coming in of a win on this same course horse coming in with a solid pattern with a new top of a -2.. Pletcher owns Gulfstream and his horse pair 34% after a new top.. A horse
4) Valid: 117lbs 6-1 M/L Solid horse solid pattern was 2nd last out running a -2 over this track he seems to like to local track 12-6-3-1 while 4-1-2-1 at the distance. A horse ..
5) Mexikoma: 115lb 8-1 M/L After having a year of came back in his 4 year old season and finished with a very solid with 0's first race back as a 5 year old runs a new top of a -2 in the sunshine millions here at Gulfstream after going 3w on both turns. Part that concerns me is the trainer seems to have a % tendancy to run an off after a new top at 33%. I like this horse the value is there as he is just as fast as the others if he the trainer can pair or top.
6) Keen Ice 121lbs High weight 5/2 M/L at 5/2 and high weigh there are other in here who are just as fast even though Curlins improve from 3-4 years old.. No value here on the favorite and others are faster..
7) Itsaknockout 118lbs 4/1 m/l likes the local surface with a 5-4-0 record 1-0 at the distance. After a long layoff comes in with a -2 over the gulfstrem track..Lemom Drop improve nicely from 3-4 years old.. Pletcher pairs 30% of the time 2nd of the layoff and 34% after a new top. A horse
8) Financial Modeling: 115lbs light weigh 10-1.. Speed of the race can he carry it the distance.. Yes he can the history says with a 3-2-0-1 record at the distance. Out of Street Sense who tends to make a big jump from 4-5. Horse only bad race was at the slop at Belmont. Trainer Brown is shipping in him along with Irad who is 2-2 with the horse. B horse..
Tough race for me.I do believe the favorite is very vulnerable here though..
My top choice here is the Pletcher Itsaknockout..
7 W/P
Ex 7/1-3-4-5-8 reverse that 1-3-4-5-8/7
Good luck feed back is welcome as Frank D is often imitated but never duplicated..
Johnny
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