Re: Place Betting (995 Views)
Posted by:
Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: February 08, 2016 08:59PM
BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I saw a study quite a while ago that concluded
> betting longshots to place was disastrous.
Betting longshots to [i]win[/i] is no bargain either, unless of course you’re adept at identifying overlays.
The table below is from a massive study (covering almost 1.8 million horses from 1996-2004) done by Steve Klein in [u]The Power of Early Speed[/u] in 2005 :
Odds | ROI
.10 - .49 | -13.0%
.50 - .99 | -17.5%
1.0 - 1.99 | -18.0%
2.0 - 2.99 | -18.5%
3.0 - 3.99 | -19.5%
4.0 - 4.99 | -19.0%
5.0 - 5.99 | -19.5%
6.0 - 6.99 | -18.0%
7.0 - 7.99 | -18.5%
8.0 - 8.99 | -16.0%
9.0 - 9.99 | -19.5%
10.0 - 10.99 | -17.5%
11.0 - 11.99 | -19.0%
12.0 - 12.99 | -18.5%
13.0 - 13.00 | -20.5%
14.0 - 14.99 | -20.5%
15.0 - 19.99 | -21.5%
20.0 - 29.99 | [color=#FF0000][b]-24.0%[/b][/color]
30.0 - 30.99 | [color=#FF0000][b]-37.0%[/b][/color]
40.0 - 49.99 | [color=#FF0000][b]-37.0%[/b][/color]
50.0 - 59.99 | [color=#FF0000][b]-41.5%[/b][/color]
60.0 - 99.99 | [color=#FF0000][b]-57.5%[/b][/color]
100+ | [color=#FF0000][b]-71.0%[/b][/color]
These results are in-line with the well-known favorite-longshot bias -- the public tends to underbet favorites and overbet longshots. I believe this effect has diminished over the past decade though as the computer guys and rebaters have siphoned much of the value out of underbet favorites.
I haven't seen any studies in reference to place bets, so it's hard to say how it compares with the win bet results shown above.
Rocky R.
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