A Modest Proposal (1779 Views)
Posted by:
David Patent (IP Logged)
Date: July 03, 2002 05:34PM
It has been very interesting watching this board basically wither and die over the last three weeks. First, you take a run at becoming an Oprah's Book Club site, then TG "The Master of Understatement" JB decides to adopt a Ragozian -- or is it Friedmanian? -- editorial policy. Instead of 'Factoid' man, the pet name for our dearly departed Soup, I dub TGBJ 'Factor Man.'
And there was the predictable. One minute Jason L. is a reasonable human interested in discussing important handicapping points. The next -- after he dared question Jerry's underlying methodology -- he is a raving lunatic.
But I'm not here to talk about Brown vs. Ragozin methodology.
Let's talk handicapping.
We're going to have a contest July 13 and/or 14.
Here is my proposal to make sure that it is a handicapping contest instead of a money management contest and to minimize the odds that some weasel will do poorly in the contest but well at the windows and crow about his tax tickets.
THE PROPOSAL
The contest will award points to prognosticating ability with no wagering as part of the contest.
Contestants will select their picks, in order, for the top three finishers in each race that is part of the contest. My preference would be that each handicapper must select choices for every race on a chosen card -- no cherry picking. We might eliminate 2 y.o. races if people are squeamish about picking winners in a field of 90% first time starters where there are no sheet numbers.
Points will be awarded as follows for a correct placing:
1st -- 20 points
2nd -- 10 points
3rd -- 5 points
Thus, if you nail the tri in order you would receive 35 points for that race. You can get points for being off one or two places if your horse still finishes in the top three according to the following schedule:
If the horse you selected for first finishes second, you get 10 points. If it finishes 3rd you get 5 points. Off the board = zero.
If the horse you selected to finish second wins you still get 10 points. If it finishes third you get 5. Off the board = zero.
If the horse you selected to finish third wins or finishes second, you get 5 points. Off the board = 0.
I tried to come up with a point system that would reward accuracy but also gave some credit for picking non-winners if they ran well. This is similar to what we do in betting. It's not all about picking the horse who finishes first, b/c exotics play a big role.
As an initial matter, we should first decide whether we want betting to be a part of the contest. If not, then we can move on to the right point system. I'm sure that there will be disagreements about the right way to structure the points but I took a shot at something which we can modify as appropriate.
HP -- What are your thoughts?
Also, what track(s) should we use for that weekend?
Also,