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Re: The Gamblin part (1097 Views)
Posted by: FrankD. (IP Logged)
Date: August 09, 2016 03:19PM

Jmoore,

Great question and I'm sure you will get a bunch of varied opinions.

Caveman tickets can get expensive and the only time I'll use one anymore is if I'm bombs away in the sequence. The A,B,C's without ticket maker can be a little daunting at first but after a few they just flow. The pick 5 that both Jimbo and I hit a couple of Saturdays ago is a good example. In .50 increments by the A,B,C's it was $88, caveman would have been $120, the difference adds up over time.I won't tell you which of us is the mathematician who bet the cave man sequence. :)

Rocky(mathcapper) has 2 formula's for DD odds, one is quick and easy, the other bit more complicated. I had a couple discussions with him about protecting sequences in motion. I don't do it often but yes especially at the Spa you almost always get 2 maiden races in the pick 5 sequence so the wise guy horse can easily be missed. TGJB will attest I'm sure to Rocky's incredible accuracy in nailing the odds that a horse will go off at, conservatively I'll give him 95%. Especially if you missed a live horse in the final leg or even one that's a bit disportionate to a legitimate ML!!!! Per Rocky " you are clinically insane if you don't protect anything with a pulse with win bets if you are alive for big money".

In pick 4's I've done a weighted sequence for years before I ever learned my A,B,C's per my opinion of the horses % to win and when I like a price horse that I feel has better than a 20% per chance to win and will be over 10/1, I'll press that ticket looking for a home run or if I am negative about a 3/5 shot that may be on 80% plus of the tickets.

Mjellish is one of the best I've ever seen on structuring horizontal tickets making sure he gets paid if he has a pricey opinion.

In my earlier rant about the nonsense discussions as opposed to handicapping one's it was out of pure frustration. I've been a contributor here since 2009, like many I lingered in the shadows and read a lot of posts before I ever staring posting my opinions. I've got 44 years in this game and I've said it many times that I've learned more here with the relationships I've made from this board and live at the Spa than I did in the previous 30 something combined.

The talent level of the players that sometimes not so much express thier opinions here anymore is absolutely off the charts!



Subject Written By Posted
The Gamblin part (1554 Views) Jmoore 08/09/2016 01:30PM
Re: The Gamblin part (1097 Views) FrankD. 08/09/2016 03:19PM
Re: The Gamblin part (975 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 04:57PM
Re: The Gamblin part (925 Views) johnnym 08/09/2016 05:05PM
Re: The Gamblin part (921 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 05:10PM
Re: The Gamblin part (919 Views) FrankD. 08/09/2016 05:25PM
Re: The Gamblin part (913 Views) jp702006 08/09/2016 08:20PM
Re: The Gamblin part (850 Views) jma11473 08/10/2016 08:53AM
Re: The Gamblin part (759 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 05:53PM
Re: The Gamblin part (856 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 06:10PM
Re: The Gamblin part (799 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 07:06PM
Re: The Gamblin part (900 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 07:47PM
Re: The Gamblin part (729 Views) Fairmount1 08/09/2016 07:38PM
Re: The Gamblin part (719 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 07:54PM
Re: The Gamblin part (755 Views) Mc990 08/09/2016 08:07PM
Re: The Gamblin part (734 Views) Boscar Obarra 08/09/2016 11:06PM
Re: The Gamblin part (1037 Views) Mathcapper 08/10/2016 12:46AM
Re: Hedging (904 Views) BitPlayer 08/10/2016 09:37AM
Re: Hedging (853 Views) TempletonPeck 08/10/2016 02:02PM
Re: Hedging (841 Views) Mathcapper 08/10/2016 02:56PM
Re: Hedging (691 Views) belmont3 08/10/2016 03:44PM
Re: Hedging (823 Views) Boscar Obarra 08/10/2016 04:13PM
Re: Hedging (748 Views) plasticman 08/24/2016 10:44AM
Re: The Gamblin part (867 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 04:34PM
Re: The Gamblin part (727 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 05:09PM
Re: The Gamblin part (768 Views) wherethevalue 08/09/2016 05:51PM
Re: The Gamblin part (916 Views) plasticman 08/09/2016 08:17PM
Re: The Gamblin part (798 Views) moosepalm 08/09/2016 09:43PM
Re: The Gamblin part (810 Views) Topcat 08/10/2016 12:20AM
Re: The Gamblin part (920 Views) mjellish 08/13/2016 09:05AM
Re: The Gamblin part (755 Views) jp702006 08/13/2016 09:32AM


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