Re: The Gamblin part (1097 Views)
Posted by:
FrankD. (IP Logged)
Date: August 09, 2016 03:19PM
Jmoore,
Great question and I'm sure you will get a bunch of varied opinions.
Caveman tickets can get expensive and the only time I'll use one anymore is if I'm bombs away in the sequence. The A,B,C's without ticket maker can be a little daunting at first but after a few they just flow. The pick 5 that both Jimbo and I hit a couple of Saturdays ago is a good example. In .50 increments by the A,B,C's it was $88, caveman would have been $120, the difference adds up over time.I won't tell you which of us is the mathematician who bet the cave man sequence. :)
Rocky(mathcapper) has 2 formula's for DD odds, one is quick and easy, the other bit more complicated. I had a couple discussions with him about protecting sequences in motion. I don't do it often but yes especially at the Spa you almost always get 2 maiden races in the pick 5 sequence so the wise guy horse can easily be missed. TGJB will attest I'm sure to Rocky's incredible accuracy in nailing the odds that a horse will go off at, conservatively I'll give him 95%. Especially if you missed a live horse in the final leg or even one that's a bit disportionate to a legitimate ML!!!! Per Rocky " you are clinically insane if you don't protect anything with a pulse with win bets if you are alive for big money".
In pick 4's I've done a weighted sequence for years before I ever learned my A,B,C's per my opinion of the horses % to win and when I like a price horse that I feel has better than a 20% per chance to win and will be over 10/1, I'll press that ticket looking for a home run or if I am negative about a 3/5 shot that may be on 80% plus of the tickets.
Mjellish is one of the best I've ever seen on structuring horizontal tickets making sure he gets paid if he has a pricey opinion.
In my earlier rant about the nonsense discussions as opposed to handicapping one's it was out of pure frustration. I've been a contributor here since 2009, like many I lingered in the shadows and read a lot of posts before I ever staring posting my opinions. I've got 44 years in this game and I've said it many times that I've learned more here with the relationships I've made from this board and live at the Spa than I did in the previous 30 something combined.
The talent level of the players that sometimes not so much express thier opinions here anymore is absolutely off the charts!