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Re: The Gamblin part (919 Views)
Posted by: mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: August 13, 2016 09:05AM

If I am playing serious money I usually write my opinions on paper for each horse in each race, and then when I am done laying out my ticket(s) I go back and read these opinions and make sure they reflect those original opinions.

As to whether or not to hedge, for me it depends. It really comes down to how much I like where I am sitting and where the value in the sequence was. If, for example, the 3rd race of a Pick 4 sequence has what I believe to be a bad favorite that is likely to be a single on a lot of tickets I will certainly play a couple of Pick 3's or DD as well as the Pick 4 to try to leverage that opinion. I will probably put in the same ticket(s) as my original Pick 4 bet and I may even include some horses not on my original bet. The point being to make sure I am cashing in as much as possible on where I think the value is in the sequence.

As a rule, I usually don't hedge just to make sure I win SOMETHING heading into the last race unless it's really easy to do and I'm about to get paid a lot of money vs the cost of my original bet. It's pretty tough to hedge a 10 horse field when you're only alive to 3 horses no matter what your potential pay off is.

I don't play a lot of caveman tickets, but IMO there is a place for them. For me it's usually when I'm not playing a sequence very seriously but still want a little action. The problem with caveman tickets is they rarely reflect your actual opinions of the races (see my first point above) because they play all horses equally with each other. If that's the best I can come up with to me that's usually a sign that I should not be playing the sequence at all. I may throw a caveman ticket in if I'm just trying to kill some time till a later race and don't otherwise plan to play those earlier races at all, or if there is a big carryover and I feel like tossing a contrarian dart, etc.

IMO one of the edges I have left in this game is the fact that I am willing to do the work to punch out many tickets to try to leverage my opinions as strongly as possible. So for example, I could hit the Pick 4 for $20 if I am dead nuts right with my handicapping, or $15 if I am mostly right but one B horse wins, or $10 if one C horse wins but the rest are A's, or $8 if two B horses win, or $5 if a B and C come in, or $2 if two C's come in, etc. The point being that the way my $ is bet more accurately reflects my actual opinions of whether or not certain horses will win their race, and I get paid more when I am really right and have a better ROI because I waste less $ on combinations that I feel are less likely to hit. I play serious vertical wagers the same way. It took me 35 minutes at the window to put my KY Derby Trifecta and Superfecta tickets in this year. But I am willing to do that work to maintain that edge.



Subject Written By Posted
The Gamblin part (1554 Views) Jmoore 08/09/2016 01:30PM
Re: The Gamblin part (1097 Views) FrankD. 08/09/2016 03:19PM
Re: The Gamblin part (974 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 04:57PM
Re: The Gamblin part (925 Views) johnnym 08/09/2016 05:05PM
Re: The Gamblin part (921 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 05:10PM
Re: The Gamblin part (919 Views) FrankD. 08/09/2016 05:25PM
Re: The Gamblin part (912 Views) jp702006 08/09/2016 08:20PM
Re: The Gamblin part (849 Views) jma11473 08/10/2016 08:53AM
Re: The Gamblin part (759 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 05:53PM
Re: The Gamblin part (856 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 06:10PM
Re: The Gamblin part (799 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 07:06PM
Re: The Gamblin part (900 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 07:47PM
Re: The Gamblin part (728 Views) Fairmount1 08/09/2016 07:38PM
Re: The Gamblin part (719 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 07:54PM
Re: The Gamblin part (755 Views) Mc990 08/09/2016 08:07PM
Re: The Gamblin part (734 Views) Boscar Obarra 08/09/2016 11:06PM
Re: The Gamblin part (1036 Views) Mathcapper 08/10/2016 12:46AM
Re: Hedging (904 Views) BitPlayer 08/10/2016 09:37AM
Re: Hedging (852 Views) TempletonPeck 08/10/2016 02:02PM
Re: Hedging (841 Views) Mathcapper 08/10/2016 02:56PM
Re: Hedging (691 Views) belmont3 08/10/2016 03:44PM
Re: Hedging (823 Views) Boscar Obarra 08/10/2016 04:13PM
Re: Hedging (748 Views) plasticman 08/24/2016 10:44AM
Re: The Gamblin part (866 Views) Furious Pete 08/09/2016 04:34PM
Re: The Gamblin part (727 Views) TempletonPeck 08/09/2016 05:09PM
Re: The Gamblin part (767 Views) wherethevalue 08/09/2016 05:51PM
Re: The Gamblin part (916 Views) plasticman 08/09/2016 08:17PM
Re: The Gamblin part (798 Views) moosepalm 08/09/2016 09:43PM
Re: The Gamblin part (810 Views) Topcat 08/10/2016 12:20AM
Re: The Gamblin part (919 Views) mjellish 08/13/2016 09:05AM
Re: The Gamblin part (755 Views) jp702006 08/13/2016 09:32AM


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