Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (905 Views)
Posted by:
Tellmenolies (IP Logged)
Date: August 29, 2016 10:09PM
The issue of course is to get more accurate figures than the other bettors going in. With more accurate figures we stand the best chance to calculate the probabilities of the various possible outcomes based on past performance and other factors,including form cycle, trainer, race shape, jockeys, bias, etc. But it all starts with accurate figures, which is why i have been buying TG for 25 years.
I posed the question about Arrogate's figures because on a relative basis, TG had him slower than some other figures widely available. The fact that Arrogate won doesn't mean TG was wrong, but it raises the question why the figures were, on a relative basis, different from the others.
i don't follow California but i see that Arrogate ran against older horses out there (only Connect did among the other Travers runners) and that Kristo, whom Arrogate beat in his last race before the Travers, was 2-1 in the $100k Brubaker and ran second to this year's Iselin winner in June.
Short fields, blow outs and the lack of two-turn races out there make it tough, not to mention the few points of common reference with east coast horses.
However, we east coasters need to know. After all, California horses took the exacta in the Derby, 1st and 3rd in Preakness, the Haskel exacta, the King's Bishop and the Travers exacta. Then there's Songbird. These California horses are feasting in the 3 year old races, and like the rest of us, i am just trying to get a good handle on them.