Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (838 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: August 30, 2016 12:50PM
Gerard-- All figures are based on previous figures, there's no other way to do it (see "Changing Track Speeds" in the Archives section). And in one of my first posts after the race I mentioned the 3 horse field, and the inherent uncertainty that comes with less data points to work with.
Having said that, I since went back and looked at the 8/4 race. Winner (Arrogate) went forward 9 points next out, second horse went back 5 (at 2-1 in a stake), so there are no conclusions about that race to be drawn from their next performances. (Only other runner went back 11 points that day and hasn't come back, but off that pattern his next won't tell you anything).