Sort of surprised to read from a few folks on this thread who are board regulars, talking about Gunnevara in a positive light.

Really? LEt's see, he gets an EXTREMELY favorable pace set up his last race, which he doesn't figure to get today, he comes into this race off a 5 point top with this the race BEFORE the Derby, where he needs to peak, and "oh by the way", let's give him post 11, which at this distance is somewhere around 1% win rate. Oh yes, and you are going to get 4/5 on the horse, best case.

Geez. I know there are almost no "have to" rules in betting horses, but this horse has to be tossed for any of those reasons.

The problem is who to play in the race.

First Dreamin has a hard to believe series of figs on TG. I get his last figure, but two back seems incredibly slow. Figures aside for a second, Pletcher scratches Battalion runner, who seemingly would have been a solid second choice, to let this guy run. And as TGJB points out, the horse is working like a monster when paired with any of TAPs other runners. 4-1 second choice on the ML a terrible value play, but I will use horizontally because Gunnevara won't be on any of my tickets.

I guess I like State of Honor best. seems to be flatlining on his pattern, but now sheds blinkers and if Gunnevara runs poorly, which I expect, this guy just pairing up from the rail may be enough. Very shaky at the distance, but as much as I hate Frenchie the jockey, one thing he is good at is conserving energy for a horse and maybe he trips out.

I will guess that some TG users will like Three Rules off his string of figures. And I can't blame them. But I think he is a sprinter and as much as I doubt the distance a bit for State of Honor, I double doubt the distance for this guy. Will be a defensive multi-race use.

Talk Logistics, at 30-1 on the ML, with an inside post, is a must-use for me. HE is one point slower than the rail horse, lightly raced enough to improve. And the price will be huge. Wish it was somebody besides Bravo, but the price compensates.

Will be looking for Gunnevara to be nowhere, with STate of Honor, Talk Logistics and First Dreamin my main uses, with a "B" on Three Rules.

Good luck.

Jim