Re: Always Dreaming (1101 Views)
Posted by:
belmont3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 07, 2017 10:23AM
Frank,
Agree with the unprofitable part. :)
I left some hay money in Elmont and still cannot figure how I snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. LOL
As to the CD "track bias".
I think you can look at the 'visual' and then look at the "data" or the charts.
1) OAKS DAY --somewhat deceiving
4 of first 6 races were wtw types and a couple of 3 path to 5 path types. (Most were pretty formful).
As pointed out by Tread, the rest if the card (9th, 11th, 12th, 13th) were all closers.
2) Derby Day-
Race 1- Maximus used rail. #8 (finished 2nd) ran wide
Race 2) No More Dough- a Closer along rail
Race 3) Rocket Time- off pace swung wide. Mo Tom (2nd) closed wide)
Race 4) Caviar Czar - guided off fence
Race 5) TURF- Sir Dudley -wide- will mention that Forge and Ghurair attempted rail moves)
Race 6) Paulasilverlining- raced off rail and off pace
Race 7) Roco Rijo-(TURF) 'prompted pace 4 path! Chart seems to indicate every horse was steered off hedge.
Race 8) Wild Shot- 'tracked 4 wide. No Dozing (2nd) came 5 wide
Race 9) Arklow (TURF)-raced 7th path and came 5 wide- of note- both Oscar and Holiday Stone were near hedge
Race 10) Limousine Liberal- 3 wide closer. Awesome Slew rail with a capital T line and Tom's Ready ran wide (3rd) Denman had the rail.
Race 11) TURF- Divisidiero came wide, Beach Patrol set pace off hedge- Conquest went to hedge
Rae 12) Always Dreaming- rail trip Ditto LAL.
Race 13) Visionary Tale close to pace. Inside out
Race 14) Wicked Macho- WTW -
My conclusions:
I am somewhat the anti-Serling when it comes to assigning a track bias. Andy, of course assigns a bias to every track 366 days per/year! Rumor has it that Andy has an I Phone BIAS ALERT APP to remind him that on this day 10 years ago the rail was dead at Oshkosh Downs.
Anyway:
OAKS day: Have to go with the Treadster---Hard to conclude a definite bias. (As far as track bias. Maybe there was track maintenance involved but, overall, the day seemed fair.
DERBY DAY- DIRT- not entirely conclusive to me that a bias existed all day. Was informed by an on track Tgenerate that the track was sealed just before the Derby for the first time all day.
TURF--I am pretty solid in the camp that the May 6th was a dead turf rail day at CD. The few that stayed inside did not fire and it seems most stayed off the hedge.
Bob