Re: Always Dreaming (1130 Views)
Posted by:
Furious Pete (IP Logged)
Date: May 10, 2017 02:00PM
It looks very hard to establish an inside bias on the dirt both friday and saturday IMHO, just by going with the figures. Plenty of tops and pair ups from the wide paths both days. The best case for it being there could probably be made for the first three or four races on friday, but even that takes a bit of handicapping to get to. If so, one would have to have Elate running a huge new top (in effect), but that is completely plausible. If Street Bizz was running against a "golden rail", she too ran a race better than any of her previous - again it's plausible. And Dancing All Night ran a absolute huge race in her racing debut. My gut feeling is that this might've been the case and that the rail was very good in those first three or four races on friday, but then it seems pretty fair from there, IF relying on the figures (and shouldn't we?).
All else equal the rail is obviously the place to be, it shouldn't surprise anyone on this board to see many winners saving ground. I saw someone mention Benner Island as the prime example of a horse winning because of an inside speed bias, but what do you say about Laney then?
That said, when you say that you haven't really looked TGJB, does this mean that if the evidence is not VERY heavy for or against a bias (i.e a dead rail or something like that) - you will weigh each horse in a race equally to get a race to fit? Would you care to elaborate a bit about your thinking around these issues? It sure isn't a problem that have an "easy fix"!