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Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1228 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco (IP Logged)
Date: April 18, 2018 08:20AM
I just read that Wynn's Las Vegas has both Good Magic and Bolt d'Oro @ 7/1. That surprises me some. But their line doesn't have to balance.
My guess is that currently they want to create an image that the race is going to be competitive and with many horses having a chance to win. Such a good crop this year and at nearly half the size as previously to boot.
Fairmount has to take mob psychology into account to get his product right. That is tricky this far in advance because we don't know who and how the spinmasters will treat the players.
Then we have me looking at the race as a regular bettor. In all years past I tried to pick a bomb, a lonshot but this year I look at the race and see only two horses who have a chance to win. I think TG has more influence on me than ever before.
A Minus 4 and a SoCal # that usually seems to understate the performance actually turned in on Derby day. Plus both contenders run at or near the front i.e. little or no ground loss. So am I to believe some late running ground losing longshot is going to run a minus six or seven to upset the favorites.
No, no, no the group sings the favorites are going to bounce. Oh yeah, from outfits that seem to manage bounces better than most. Even a three or four point regression makes them faster than the second tier who are unlikely, we've learned, to improve in a tougher and longer race.
So my line is even money on each of the top two and a couple of hundred to one on all the rest.
Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (2011 Views)
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Fairmount1 |
04/17/2018 09:37PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1137 Views)
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TempletonPeck |
04/17/2018 09:52PM |
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jbrown007 |
04/17/2018 09:54PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1258 Views)
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Fairmount1 |
04/17/2018 10:22PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1200 Views)
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Gerard |
04/18/2018 01:04PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1187 Views)
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TGJB |
04/18/2018 01:31PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (998 Views)
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Gerard |
04/18/2018 02:25PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1234 Views)
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jbelfior |
04/18/2018 04:40PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1002 Views)
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RICH |
04/18/2018 08:15AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1228 Views) |
Tavasco |
04/18/2018 08:20AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1089 Views)
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toppled |
04/18/2018 10:07AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1162 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/18/2018 07:07PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1130 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 08:17PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (924 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/18/2018 08:51PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (901 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 09:23PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1549 Views)
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jp702006 |
04/18/2018 09:31PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1056 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 09:46PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (919 Views)
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jp702006 |
04/18/2018 09:52PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (963 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/18/2018 10:58PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (970 Views)
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RICH |
04/18/2018 10:00PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (926 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/19/2018 10:59AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (914 Views)
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Gerard |
04/19/2018 12:46PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (888 Views)
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bluechip21 |
04/19/2018 12:51PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (891 Views)
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Gerard |
04/19/2018 12:54PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (881 Views)
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bluechip21 |
04/19/2018 12:58PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (939 Views)
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big18741 |
04/19/2018 01:14PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1022 Views)
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TGJB |
04/19/2018 01:47PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1003 Views)
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ajkreider |
04/19/2018 02:19PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (876 Views)
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jbelfior |
04/19/2018 08:24PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (899 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/19/2018 09:00PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (971 Views)
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TGJB |
04/19/2018 11:21PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (831 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/19/2018 11:38PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (911 Views)
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Fairmount1 |
04/19/2018 11:53PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1063 Views)
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rhagood |
04/19/2018 12:02AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1029 Views)
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wrongly1 |
04/19/2018 08:51AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (884 Views)
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toppled |
04/19/2018 10:27AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1053 Views)
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Chas04 |
04/19/2018 10:30AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (951 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/20/2018 07:50PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1053 Views)
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Niall |
04/20/2018 09:46PM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1272 Views)
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Tavasco |
04/21/2018 06:36AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1062 Views)
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TGJB |
04/21/2018 11:39AM |
Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L, '18 (1121 Views)
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jwbcardinals |
04/19/2018 11:59AM |
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