Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  The Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Fair Grounds, Race 11, December 8, 2018 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Comments on ITP Interview (318 Views)
Posted by: BitPlayer (IP Logged)
Date: November 08, 2018 04:17PM

Interesting listen. Thanks for posting that. I have a couple of comments.

I’ll start by saying that I don’t play exotics involving more than two legs (either horizontal or vertical) for the reason ITP mentioned. Since my handicapping skills are not strong, the more choices I make in structuring a wager, the more likely I am to make a bad one that kills any value I may have built up in my other choices.

That said, one of the comments ITP made about the A-B-C system of structuring multi-race bets did not make sense to me. Based on what I’ve heard from talking heads, I think he is right that people tend to make the mistake of designating horses as A’s, B’s, and C’s based on win probability rather than expected value. His comment about not making a favorite a “C” does not, however, make sense to me from a purely mathematical perspective. If you are allocating horses based on expected value (or edge), and a ticket with all A’s in the other legs has an expected value of $1.30 per $1.00, and the expected value of a bet on the favorite in the last race is $0.80, you want to bet the favorite as a C with all your A’s because that ticket would have an expected value of $1.04. If you also have a B in one of the earlier legs, the ticket with one B and the rest A’s will have a lower expected value than the all-A ticket, say $1.20. You do not want to bet the favorite as an A or B with that ticket because the expected value would be only $0.96.

I was also interested in ITP’s comments about lowering bet minimums. He indicated that, because of his big bankroll, he did well with big minimums because could afford to cover more combinations than small-bankroll players. He then said that lower minimums are bad for both types of players. To me, parimutuel wagering is a zero-sum game. If someone is doing worse, someone else is doing better.



Subject Written By Posted
BCBC Wagers and ITP Interview (678 Views) Fairmount1 11/07/2018 04:39PM
Re: BCBC Wagers and ITP Interview (405 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/07/2018 05:12PM
Re: BCBC Wagers and ITP Interview (440 Views) Fairmount1 11/07/2018 05:22PM
Re: BCBC Wagers and ITP Interview (377 Views) bluechip21 11/07/2018 07:37PM
Re: BCBC Wagers and ITP Interview (335 Views) billk5300s 11/08/2018 11:11AM
Re: Comments on ITP Interview (318 Views) BitPlayer 11/08/2018 04:17PM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.