Re: Arlington Million Revisited (426 Views)
Posted by:
Lucy (IP Logged)
Date: August 22, 2004 11:17PM
ok, don't get me wrong --- it's not that I completely dispute what you are saying, it's just that I think you were a little quick to jump to conclusions based on observation, so I point out an equally probable cause for your observed effect.
I realize that your hypothetical was greatly exaggerated for illustration, but I think it may be misleading, in that horses really don't 'walk' while making a slow pace, and really don't accelerate to the wire as often as it might appear.
I think it's more typical that the winner can maintain 12 second furlongs, while the others slow down in the last quarter.
certainly, there are some instances of horses running 13's and finishing w/an 11, but this is more the exception, I think.
bear in mind that it's been years since I was breaking down race fractions.
I only base my opinions on playing turf solely off figs w/decent result.
in fact, I tend to prefer playing turf over dirt.
if what you maintain is true, jerry would seem to be wasting a great amount of effort on euro figs, as I'm sure that it's even more pronounced over there.