The Kentucky Derby Puzzle (1452 Views)
Posted by: Tavasco
Date: April 15, 2019 10:05PM
Now that the preps are complete we begin to consider in detail what we learned, what impressed us, and generally how to make some money on the Kentucky Derby.
This year's race seems different than years past in some way that I'm trying to ascertain? More than the first time I haven't liked either a Euro or Japanese entry.
Thank goodness we have TG to differentiate the preps. Each of the winners looked bulletproof. That is to say no other horse was threatening the winner. No winner was wilting at the wire.
In the La. Derby By My Standard beat Spinoff & Sueno, I'm unlikely to use any of these in any way. The La. horse is of course War of Will. He is sort of a wildcard. Is he healthy, is a 1+1/4 in his range? Is he a contender? Price s/b there.
In the Florida Derby, Maximum Security had everything his own way and impresses, but I suppose the trainer taints that one some. I liked 2nd place Bodexpress (who Owendale compimented in the Lexington) sure to be a big price, now looks as if he'll need a defection to get in the field..
In the Wood, Tacitus looked great. I have not seen the TG #'s for that race but I expect them to be good. But the track condition and the colts running style are worrisome for me. I want to like any of the top three but fool me once, I've been burnt too many times on Wood come backers in May or June. On my radar in August.
The Blue Grass, Purists say Vekoma runs ugly, they say he paddles? He definitely impressed me. I won't discount a Blue Grass winner. The place horse Win Win Win has impressed repeatedly and c/b a big price use in the Super. Or the 5 deep bet?
Then The Santa Anita Derby on a tricked up track. Deepened and resulting in times different (slower by the clock) than historically. I would not question a Bob Baffert trainer three y/o regardless of time or speed figure remembering Cupid and his Rebel. Game Winner's worst finish is 2nd?
The Arkansas Derby completes the evidence. Omaha Beach maybe the most impressive to date, but some will say the wet track helped. Improbable is very probable to run well in KY imho.
Who does that leave Plus Que Parfait, traditionally the wise guys discount the Dubai shippers, Thunder Snow, Mendelsson, Gronkowski, Lani. The run for the roses has not been kind to really any foreign invaders, despite their other successes.
So I'm thinking I don't have to look further than the top two in any of the preps other than the La. Derby where I'll substitute War of Will and include the top three from the wood.
Now I only have a dozen horses to sequence. Sort of evenly distributed among front runners, pressers and closers. Hey maybe this isn't as tough as I thought. Of course it is, one of the most competitive Ky Derbys in my recollection. And Baffert may not be holding all of the Aces. Yet three Kings is very strong.
Seemingly a tough group to separate. Then consider these colts can improve or regress a couple or three points and that's before adjusting for trip dynamics. If you can't tell I'm excited.