Re: Suburban (509 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper
Date: July 07, 2019 12:44AM
FWIW the final price ended up identical to the Will Pays. Having said that, it was indeed a big drop (from 6-1 to 7-2 after they were loaded in the gate). Might not have hurt that Maggie chimed in with big endorsement as they were about to load either.
A note about big late action and Will Pays:
When a horse's odds are way out of whack with the corresponding Will Pays in the final minute, it doesn't always happen that a big move in the odds will occur that brings the odds into line with the Will Pays. It's not like there's some computer team(s) out there arbing the win pool and Will Pays, at least from what I've seen (although it may exist to some small degree).
But when you do see the money come in and completely erase a large discrepancy in the lines, it's usually a good sign the horse is going to run his race.
When the money doesn't come in at all, which happens on occasion (as was the case with one other entry in this field), the opposite is usually true.
As Benter and numerous academic papers have found, the later the money, the smarter it is, with the marginal money in the last minute or so being the most efficient.
The hard part is trying to figure out whose going to take the late action and who isn't, which is where the Will Plays can really help. As noted above, horses' odds don't always move into line with the Will Pays in the final flash, but if there's a big discrepancy in the final minute, a big move is to be expected much if not most of the time.
Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.