Your Ask The Experts ID
is separate from your
Order Online Account ID
 Race of the Week:  The Hockessin Stakes Delaware Park, Race 6, July 13, 2019 
Order Online
Buy TG Data
Complete Menu of
TG Data products
Simulcast Books
Customize a Value
Package of Select
TG Data
Sheet Requests
Order The Last Figure for Any Horse
Free Products
Redboard Room
Download and Review previous days' data.
Race of the Week
With detailed comments
ThoroTrack
Email notification when your horse races
Information
Introduction
For newcomers.
Samples and Tutorials
For Horsemen
Consulting services and Graph Racing
Sales Sites
Where to buy TG around the country
Archives
Historical races and handicapping articles
Handicapping
Hall of Fame
Major handicapping contest winners
Home Page
Re: Suburban (541 Views)
Posted by: Mathcapper (IP Logged)
Date: July 07, 2019 09:11AM

Not quite sure where you're getting that 6-1. Based on a $266 Will Pay and a $43.60 leg 1 winner, after adjusting for takeout that works out to around 4-1.

I think I posted the takeout-adjusted formula on the board somewhere before, but for reference here's what it boils down to at NYRA tracks:

Expected $2 Payout = 1.73 x ($2 Will Pay / Leg 1 Winner $2 Payout)

In this case it's 1.73 x $267/$43.60 = $10.60, or ~ 4-1.

This isn't the best way to calculate it anyway though, for a couple of reasons. One, you don't want to just look at the single winner's payout from the previous leg, because if that horse's win odds were out of alignment with the Will Pays, it will throw off every horse's odds in the next leg. And two, you want to avoid using longshot winners in the prior leg because they're often overbet, relatively speaking, in the doubles, which will also throw off the estimates.

I use the first few favorites from the prior leg and the entire matrix of double payouts, rather than just the "quick 'n dirty" method posted above, to get the best estimates.

In the case of the Suburban, Preservationist was 3.3-1, 3.6-1 and 3.7-1 with the first three favorites from the prior leg, respectively.



Subject Written By Posted
Suburban (536 Views) jerry 07/06/2019 10:57PM
Re: Suburban (507 Views) Mathcapper 07/07/2019 12:44AM
Re: Suburban (424 Views) jerry 07/07/2019 01:43AM
Re: Suburban (458 Views) RICH 07/07/2019 06:19AM
Re: Suburban (412 Views) skitimber 07/07/2019 09:02AM
Re: Suburban (541 Views) Mathcapper 07/07/2019 09:11AM
Re: Suburban (388 Views) RICH 07/08/2019 06:10AM


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.
This forum powered by Phorum.

Thoro-Graph 180 Varick Street New York, NY 10014 ---- Click here for the Ask The Experts Archives.