Re: Travers - Postscript (554 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: August 29, 2004 01:34PM
Retrofit-- I said BEFORE the race that the two ML favorites were vulnerable, with one coming off a huge effort, and the other coming off a pair of negatives, both on 20 days rest. Alan also asked me how many 3yo's have thrown 3 negatives in a row, and I can't think of a whole lot. And that's independent of rest.
What I said after the race is that there is no reason to say FROM THIS RACE that LH can't get the distance, not just because of the above, but because he stopped before he went a mile. THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK HE WOULD NOT ALSO HAVE DONE SO IF THE RACE WAS 1 1/8th.
I also said BEFORE the race that anyone who had a strong opinion was nuts, EVEN IF THEY CASHED. No matter what the result, there was going to be somebody posting here about how they were right. If you get on line to cash after any race, you will meet a lot of people who know the horse won for the reasons they bet it. The difference (as HP would say), is I'm right, and they're wrong.
I ended up having a pretty good day. We gave out a pick 4 as 3x1x2x3, but 2 of the 3 in the first race scratched. The next 3 races provided the pick 3 ($300) on a $12 play. I didn't play pick 3's or pick 4's, but I hit the ROTW tri pretty hard playing it just like I wrote it and picked it (NTL on top, throw out the bad ones, use ST extra). I also hit the Pomeroy/Birdstone double pretty hard (2x3, doubling up with Pomeroy-- fastest horse, concealed, good line off 1 point top). Several TG players I know who played exotics in the King's Bishop hit the race, some very hard, since the favorites were very beatable, and Pomeroy was pretty clear.
I used 3 in the Travers-- LH, Bird, Sir Shac. Boxed them lightly, but mostly just sat rooting against TCE and Purge. I have to say, I would love to know what Eddington looked like on Ragozin, and why those guys liked him-- on TG he was the slowest horse in the race, and given his lack of forward movement was hard to play for a jump.
TGJB